周大福：FY25Q3旺季同店降幅收窄，一口价表现积极

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a 14.2% year-on-year decline in retail value for FY25Q3, with a 13.0% decline in mainland China and a 20.4% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets, influenced by macroeconomic factors and high gold prices [1]. - Same-store sales showed a narrowing decline due to stabilized gold prices and successful product optimization measures, with mainland China same-store sales down 16.1% and Hong Kong and Macau down 21.3% [1]. - The company is making positive progress in brand transformation, optimizing product and pricing strategies, and improving operational efficiency [3]. Retail Performance - In FY25Q3, the retail value of gold jewelry and products in mainland China decreased by 13.0%, while same-store sales fell by 15.3%. In Hong Kong and Macau, retail value dropped by 33.5%, with same-store sales down 36.2% [2]. - The average selling price of gold products remained resilient, increasing to 6300 HKD in mainland China and 8800 HKD in Hong Kong and Macau [2]. - For the embedded category, retail value in mainland China decreased by 11.9%, while the Hong Kong and Macau markets saw a 34.4% increase in retail value, benefiting from effective promotional activities [2]. Store Expansion - As of December 31, 2024, the company had 6836 retail points, with a net closure of 255 stores during the quarter [3]. - In mainland China, there were 6685 retail points, with a net closure of 261 stores, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets had 151 retail points, with a net opening of 6 stores [3]. - The total number of retail points for the group was 7065, reflecting a net decrease of 259 stores [3]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 5.63 billion HKD, 6.91 billion HKD, and 7.68 billion HKD for FY25-27, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [3].