PDH(600048) 高盛·2025-01-24 01:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Developments and Holdings is Neutral [2][9]. Core Views - The 2024 profit forecast is impacted by profit margins and impairment factors, with a projected net profit of RMB 5 billion, a 58% year-on-year decline, and a 47% decrease compared to previous estimates [1]. - The management's guidance for 2025 indicates that net profit will remain flat compared to 2024, with contract sales gross margin recovery dependent on market conditions [1][2]. - The company plans to revitalize 8 million square meters of undeveloped land, which constitutes approximately 27% of its land reserves by the end of 2024 [1][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2024 is RMB 5 billion, down 58% year-on-year, with project turnover expected to decline by 10% to RMB 313 billion [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 is anticipated to decrease by 2 percentage points to around 14% [1]. - The company plans to issue RMB 9.5 billion in convertible bonds to supplement capital [1]. Sales Outlook - In December 2024, the real estate sales revenue decreased by 37% month-on-month and 34% year-on-year to RMB 15 billion, with an annual sales revenue of RMB 323 billion, a 23% decline [6]. - For 2025, the company expects a 5% year-on-year increase in contract sales revenue, supported by RMB 500 billion in saleable resources [6]. Land Acquisition - In Q4 2024, Poly Developments added 13 new projects with a total land area of 1.06 million square meters at a total land price of RMB 26.7 billion, which is 33% of the quarterly contract sales revenue [7]. - The total land price for 2024 was RMB 68.3 billion, accounting for 21% of the annual contract sales revenue [7]. Valuation - The target price based on net asset value is set at RMB 10.0, reflecting a 10% discount to the expected net asset value by the end of 2025 [11]. - The current stock price is at a 22% discount to the expected net asset value for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 15.5% [2][8].