中钢国际：Q4业绩预计受减值影响，海外业务高景气延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's Q4 performance is expected to decline primarily due to impairment losses, with a projected revenue of 17.62 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 6.2% to 810 million yuan, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin overseas business [1][3] - The overseas business is anticipated to continue its high growth momentum, with new contracts signed in 2024 expected to reach 19.67 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year. The overseas orders are projected to account for 83% of total new contracts, reflecting a significant growth rate of 55% CAGR from 2022 to 2024 [2] - The company has a strong cash flow and a high dividend payout ratio, with an estimated dividend yield of around 5% for 2025, making it an attractive investment option [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 808 million yuan, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.56 yuan. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 11.2 times [4][3] - The financial indicators show a significant drop in revenue from 26.38 billion yuan in 2023 to 17.62 billion yuan in 2024, while the net profit is expected to grow from 761 million yuan in 2023 to 808 million yuan in 2024 [4][10] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain stable around 9.7% for 2024, with a gradual increase to 10.2% by 2026 [4][10]