CGS(601881) 申万宏源·2025-01-24 05:54Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for China Galaxy [6] Core Views - China Galaxy's 2024 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 35.4 billion yuan (+5% YoY) and net profit attributable to parent company of 10.1 billion yuan (+29% YoY) [1] - ROE improved to 8.4% (+0.89pct YoY) [1] - 4Q24 net profit reached 3.17 billion yuan (+148.5% YoY, +23.1% QoQ) [6] - Brokerage and investment banking businesses showed significant growth [6] - Bond underwriting business grew 34.4% YoY to 481.61 billion yuan, ranking 6th in the industry [6] - Margin financing business benefited from market recovery with daily average balance of 1.78 trillion yuan in 4Q24 (+8% YoY, +26% QoQ) [6] - FICC business capabilities are industry-leading with financial investment assets reaching 351.01 billion yuan at end-3Q24 (+13.1% from beginning of year) [6] Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: 35.37 billion yuan, 40.205 billion yuan, 44.499 billion yuan [2] - Net profit forecast for 2024-2026: 10.133 billion yuan, 11.761 billion yuan, 12.965 billion yuan [2] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: 0.85 yuan, 1.00 yuan, 1.11 yuan [2] - ROE forecast for 2024-2026: 8.93%, 9.72%, 9.99% [2] - P/E ratio forecast for 2024-2026: 16.34x, 13.91x, 12.53x [2] - P/B ratio forecast for 2024-2026: 1.41x, 1.30x, 1.21x [2] Company Fundamentals - Net asset per share: 9.77 yuan [3] - Asset-liability ratio: 81.72% [3] - Total shares outstanding: 10.934 billion [3] - A-shares outstanding: 7.243 billion [3] - H-shares outstanding: 3.691 billion [3] Market Performance - Closing price on Jan 23, 2025: 13.94 yuan [6] - 52-week high/low: 17.55 yuan/9.70 yuan [6] - Market cap of A-shares: 100.973 billion yuan [6] - Dividend yield: 2.18% [6]