Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (SZ:000983) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-01-25 23:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that both coal volume and price have declined, negatively impacting performance. Attention is drawn to the growth potential of coal mines and high dividend payouts [1][5] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.85 to 3.38 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 50.1% to 57.9% [1] - The report anticipates a gradual stabilization of coking coal prices in 2025 due to economic policies and limited production increases [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 3.15 billion yuan for 2024, down 53.5% year-on-year, with an expected EPS of 0.55 yuan [1][7] - Revenue is projected to decline from 55.52 billion yuan in 2023 to 43.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 21.7% [7] Coal Business Outlook - In 2024, coal production is expected to be affected by the shutdown of several mines, with a total impact of approximately 1.65 million tons, which is 3.4% of the company's approved capacity [5] - The report notes that the company has acquired exploration rights for a new coal mine with a planned capacity of 8 million tons per year, which could enhance production in the future [6] Dividend Policy - The company distributed a cash dividend of 0.8 yuan per share in 2023, with a payout ratio of 67.1%, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [6] - Assuming the dividend payout ratio remains the same in 2024, the expected dividend yield could reach 5% based on the current stock price [6]