豪能股份：业绩预告中枢同比+80%，减速器打开长期成长空间

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Junhao Energy Co., Ltd. (603809.SH) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on performance forecasts and growth potential. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.1 to 3.4 billion yuan for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 79.6% [2] - The growth is driven by the release of new projects and products in the synchronizer and differential gear segments, leading to improved scale effects and gross margin optimization [4] - The aerospace components business is also contributing to revenue growth, alongside a reduction in losses from long-term equity investments [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 2.444 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.6% [5] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 320 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 75.9% compared to the previous year [5] - Gross margin is expected to stabilize around 32.3% in 2024, with a slight recovery in subsequent years [5] Business Development Summary - The core differential gear project is nearing significant production capacity, with a notable increase in gross margin as production scales up [4] - The company is expanding its product offerings in the transmission system, including hollow motor shafts and planetary gearboxes, which supports its goal of a comprehensive industry chain layout [4] - The market for reducer products is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 22.65 billion yuan for automotive reducers by 2028 and 75 billion yuan for humanoid robot reducers by 2029 [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are 2.444 billion yuan in 2024, 2.946 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.561 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - Corresponding net profits are expected to be 320 million yuan in 2024, 428 million yuan in 2025, and 519 million yuan in 2026, with price-to-earnings ratios of 28, 21, and 17 respectively [4][5]