轻工纺服行业周报：轻工出口龙头业绩亮眼，看好25年海外订单持续

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [15] Core Views - The light industry sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in real estate and the implementation of the old-for-new policy, leading to sustained consumer enthusiasm in home goods. This is expected to improve the outlook for cyclical sectors like home furnishings, with valuations likely to recover [2] - The export chain is anticipated to benefit from the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, with ongoing overseas replenishment demand for products such as thermos cups and office furniture [2] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Xiangxin Home, Jiayi Co., Lege Co., and Henglin Co., which are positioned well in the light industry export chain [2] Summary by Sections Light Industry - The light industry is seeing improved expectations due to favorable policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. The home goods sector is particularly highlighted for its potential recovery [2] - Companies like Xiangxin Home are focusing on expanding their own brands and have established over 150 small to medium-sized stores in the U.S. [3] - Jiayi Co. is projected to achieve a net profit of 725-745 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.59%-57.83% [4] Home Furnishings - Major players in the home furnishings sector, such as Sophia and Oppein, are expected to see varying performance in 2024, with Sophia's net profit projected to grow by 5%-15% due to the implementation of the old-for-new policy [5] - Oppein is facing challenges with a projected revenue decline of 10%-20%, but is pursuing a "whole home" strategy to enhance its market position [5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing a weak recovery in consumer spending, but policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to enhance consumer confidence [10] - The report notes that the overall retail sales of clothing and textiles are expected to recover quickly in 2025, driven by a favorable consumption environment [13] - The export of textiles and apparel from China is projected to reach $301.1 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [12] Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to continue its rapid growth, with imports and exports increasing by 10.8% in 2024 [14] - The report suggests that there is significant potential for growth in overseas warehouses and cross-border e-commerce platforms [13]