工业企业利润点评（2024.12）：“两新”补贴和抢出口共同推动工业利润回升

Profit Trends - In December, industrial enterprise profits showed a significant improvement, with a year-on-year decline of only -3.3%, rebounding by 18.3 percentage points from November to reach a near 11-month high of 11.0%[1] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises in December increased by 3.7 percentage points to 4.2%, marking a high level for the year, which significantly boosted profit growth compared to November[1] - The cumulative cost rate for December dropped by 0.18 percentage points to 85.16%, reversing a five-month trend of deep profit drag from operating costs to a positive contribution of +5.3 percentage points[1] Sector Performance - All three major sectors (manufacturing, mining, and utilities) saw profit improvements, but the reasons varied; mining and utilities benefited mainly from cost reductions, while manufacturing profits were driven by "two new" subsidies and export boosts[1] - Manufacturing sector profits narrowed their year-on-year decline to -3.9%, with revenue improving by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a positive operational trend[1] - In specific manufacturing segments, profits improved due to fiscal "two new" subsidies and export boosts, with notable gains in computer communication and electrical machinery sectors[1] Inventory and Economic Outlook - Nominal finished goods inventory remained low at 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a potential peak in the current inventory replenishment cycle, with actual inventory growth declining by 0.2 percentage points to 5.7%[1] - The report suggests that the 2025 domestic consumption stimulus policies need to be robust and sustained to significantly boost industrial enterprise confidence[1] - For 2025, the expected scale of central government subsidies for consumption is projected to reach around 500 billion, which aligns with previous expectations and is anticipated to stimulate durable goods demand[1] Risks and Challenges - The external environment for export enterprises is expected to be more uncertain in 2025, with potential risks from increased tariffs and trade policies[1] - The report highlights that the overall industrial profit growth trend in 2024 was weak due to several factors, including real estate market adjustments and external pressures on high-end exports[1]