2025年春节海内外宏观综述：乙巳之初，风起云涌

Group 1: Trade Policies and Tariffs - Trump signed an executive order on February 1, 2025, imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on imports from China and energy imports from Canada[3] - China's share of U.S. imports has decreased from 21.6% in 2017 to approximately 13.5% in 2024, while its share of the U.S. trade deficit remains close to 25%[3][4] - The U.S. trade deficit with Mexico is primarily driven by imports of automobiles and machinery, which account for nearly 60% of the total[4] Group 2: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% after three consecutive rate cuts totaling 100 basis points, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid rising inflation concerns[10] - The European Central Bank (ECB) implemented a preventive rate cut of 25 basis points in response to potential U.S. tariff risks, bringing the total cuts to 125 basis points since the beginning of the easing cycle[13] - Japan's central bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, despite facing significant economic challenges, indicating a focus on stabilizing the yen[15] Group 3: Domestic Consumption Trends - During the 2025 Spring Festival, average daily passenger transport by rail and air reached 136.1% and 126.3% of 2019 levels, respectively, reflecting stable growth in domestic service consumption[19] - The overall service consumption demand in 2025 is expected to grow at a rate slightly above that of resident income, driven by high-intensity subsidies for durable goods[20] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - The risk of increased export uncertainty due to U.S. tariffs on China and other regions is highlighted as a significant concern for future economic stability[22] - The potential for a renewed wage inflation spiral in the U.S. is a key factor that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in 2025[10]