Spotify(SPOT) 浦银国际证券·2025-02-07 03:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Spotify (SPOT.US) with a target price adjusted to 626 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance exceeded expectations, with FY24 Q4 revenue reaching €4.242 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and a gross margin improvement of 5.6 percentage points to 32.2% [3][4]. - User growth remains strong, with FY24 Q4 Monthly Active Users (MAU) increasing by 12% to 675 million, driven by emerging markets [4]. - The company has demonstrated strong pricing power, with Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) rising by 5% to €4.85, contributing to a 16.9% increase in Premium revenue [4]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 Q4 revenue: €4.242 billion, up 15.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations by 1.9% [3]. - FY24 Q4 operating profit: €477 million, with a net profit of €367 million, achieving a record net profit margin of 8.7% [3]. - FY25E/FY26E revenue projections: €18.1 billion and €20.8 billion respectively, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be €2.736 billion and €3.552 billion [5][6]. User and Revenue Growth - FY24 Q4 MAU reached 675 million, with subscription users at 263 million, primarily driven by growth in emerging markets [4]. - Premium revenue for FY24 Q4 was €3.705 billion, reflecting a 16.9% increase YoY, supported by both user growth and ARPU increase [4]. Advertising Business Outlook - The advertising segment showed modest growth, with Ad-Supported revenue increasing by 7.2% to €537 million, although this was partially offset by pricing weakness [5]. - The company is enhancing its programmatic advertising technology and seeking more partnerships to boost ad inventory sales, with expectations for significant growth in this area by 2026 [5].