LI AUTO(02015) 天风证券·2025-02-08 13:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 141.5 HKD, compared to the current price of 103.2 HKD [5]. Core Insights - The electric vehicle wave is driving domestic brands to penetrate the high-end market, with a significant increase in market share from less than 5% in 2019 to over 30% by 2024 in the SUV market priced above 300,000 RMB [1][12]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product definition capabilities and improving its charging network, which is expected to lead to significant growth in its pure electric vehicle sales [2][45]. - The company has established an overseas department to accelerate its international expansion, particularly in markets like Russia and the Middle East, where it has already seen promising sales figures [3][31]. Summary by Sections 1. High-End Market Domestic Substitution Acceleration - The domestic brands are gaining traction in the high-end market, with a market share increase to over 40% by Q3 2024 [12]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as traditional luxury brands face declining sales, with BBA's sales in China expected to drop by 10% in 2024 [1][21]. 2. Pure Electric Network Improvement - The company has made significant investments in its charging network, with the number of charging stations increasing from 349 to 1730 within a year [50]. - The introduction of the 800V platform is expected to enhance the efficiency and appeal of its pure electric models, addressing consumer concerns about charging times [46][49]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 147.6 billion, 201.9 billion, and 251.8 billion RMB, with net profits of 8.6 billion, 14.9 billion, and 18.6 billion RMB respectively [4][52]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-sales ratio of 1.00 by 2025, reflecting its strong market position and growth potential [4].