美国1月CPI超预期反弹，进一步拉低近期降息可能

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rebounded unexpectedly in January, increasing by 0.24 percentage points to 0.45%, surpassing the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - The overall CPI also accelerated by 0.11 percentage points to 0.47%, exceeding market expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI rose to 3%, while the core CPI reached 3.3%, both up by 0.1 percentage points[1] Employment Data - In January, non-farm payrolls added 143,000 jobs, falling short of the market expectation of 175,400 jobs and the previous month's figure of 307,000 jobs[2] - The unemployment rate decreased for two consecutive months, dropping from 4.09% in December to 4.01% in January[2] - Average hourly earnings showed improvement in month-on-month growth, although year-on-year growth remained stable[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - The rebound in core CPI was primarily driven by a significant increase in super core services, which accelerated by 0.46 percentage points to 0.71%[1] - Transportation services saw a notable rise in inflation, with car insurance prices surging to 2.0% in January from 0.46% in December[1] - Seasonal adjustments and price resets at the beginning of the year contributed to the inflation rate in January, while the previously resilient owner-equivalent rent has shown signs of decline[2] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The recent tariff increases on Chinese imports (10%) and Canadian/Mexican imports (25%) are projected to raise U.S. inflation by 0.15 percentage points and 0.77 percentage points, respectively, if fully passed on to consumers[5] - In extreme scenarios, if tariffs on all Chinese goods rise to 60%, the overall inflation could increase by up to 2 percentage points[5] - The forecast for the core PCE inflation rate for 2025 has been adjusted upward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% due to these tariff actions[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to resume interest rate cuts until at least June, given the recent employment and inflation data[6] - The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in March and May meetings, with a potential reduction of 2-3 times by 25 basis points throughout the year[6] - The ongoing tariff situation and inflation concerns will lead the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach regarding interest rate adjustments[6]