Microsoft-微软：云业务不及预期，AI贡献持续提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft (MSFT.US) with a target price of $500, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of$ 411.4 [2][6][7]. Core Insights - Microsoft's FY25 Q2 revenue reached $69.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, slightly above market expectations. Net profit was$ 24.11 billion, growing 10% year-on-year. The productivity and business processes segment saw a 14% increase, while intelligent cloud revenue grew by 19%, with Azure revenue increasing by 31%, although this was below market expectations. AI-related services contributed 13% to revenue, showing continuous improvement [2][4]. - The company has slightly adjusted its FY2025 revenue forecast to $275.876 billion and expects a net profit of$ 98.294 billion, maintaining a target price of $500, which corresponds to a 38x price-to-earnings ratio for FY2025E. The report expresses confidence in Microsoft's leading position in the office software sector and anticipates long-term benefits from AI integration [2][4]. Financial Forecast Summary - FY2025E Revenue:$ 275.876 billion (previously $276.229 billion, a decrease of 0.1%) - FY2025E Gross Profit:$ 189.104 billion (previously $188.862 billion, an increase of 0.1%) - FY2025E Operating Profit:$ 123.594 billion (previously $122.802 billion, an increase of 0.6%) - FY2025E Net Profit:$ 98.294 billion (previously $98.175 billion, an increase of 0.1%) - FY2025E Gross Margin: 68.5% (previously 68.4%, an increase of 0.2%) - FY2025E Net Margin: 35.6% (previously 35.5%, an increase of 0.1%) [4].