以改革促发展，新柳工扬帆起航

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.85 RMB based on a 14x PE for 2025 [3]. Core Views - The company is leveraging reforms to drive growth, with significant profit releases expected. The integration of various business segments post-reform is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [1][2]. - Domestic and international demand for excavators is expected to resonate positively, with projections indicating a recovery in sales and a favorable market environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has undergone significant changes post-reform, including the merger with Liugong Limited, which has optimized its equity structure and diversified its product offerings into less cyclical segments such as pre-stressed and agricultural machinery [1]. - A second round of equity incentives was initiated in 2023, with 58.54 million shares at an exercise price of 6.9 RMB per share, aimed at improving ROE and profit metrics [1]. - Manufacturing and procurement costs have decreased by 3.4% and 4.3% respectively in the first half of 2024, leading to an increase in net profit margin to 6.3%, up 4.1 percentage points from 2022 [1]. Domestic and International Demand - Domestic excavator sales are projected to reach 100,500 units in 2024, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year increase, with a continued upward trend expected through 2027 [1]. - Internationally, demand is anticipated to recover, particularly in mature markets post-election and in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America, with expectations of sustained growth in 2025 [1][2]. Excavator Market Dynamics - The company is enhancing its market share in the excavator segment through modularization and standardization of components, with a projected increase in market share for 2023 and 2024 [2]. - Overseas revenue reached 7.71 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued high growth in international markets [2]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 30.135 billion RMB, 35.027 billion RMB, and 40.786 billion RMB respectively, with net profits projected at 1.371 billion RMB, 2.141 billion RMB, and 2.882 billion RMB [3]. - The company’s PE ratios are expected to decrease from 16 in 2024 to 8 in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3].