潮宏基：景气度领先，产品创新引领发展-20250218

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][18]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong revenue performance, outpacing the industry average, with a focus on product innovation and a youthful, differentiated brand positioning targeting urban independent fashion women [1][4]. - The company has successfully launched a series of differentiated gold bead products that have gained popularity in the young jewelry market, contributing to a favorable revenue structure [2]. - The company continues to expand its store network, reflecting confidence from franchisees despite industry challenges [3]. Revenue Performance - In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024, the company's revenue grew by 17.9%, 10.3%, and declined by 4.4% respectively, compared to the jewelry retail industry's performance of 4.5%, -5.1%, and -10.1% [1]. - The revenue structure from 2021 to 2023 shows traditional gold jewelry's share increasing from 28% to 38%, while fashion jewelry's share decreased from 60% to 51% [2]. Store Expansion - As of Q3 2024, the total number of "CHJ潮宏基" jewelry stores reached 1,482, with 1,236 being franchise stores, marking a net increase of 126 stores since the beginning of the year [3]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is projected at 353.76 million, 428.53 million, and 507.62 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.77, 12.19, and 10.29 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield, with a projected dynamic dividend rate of 6% in 2025 [4].