MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 东吴证券·2025-02-19 13:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Mengniu Dairy's impairment provisions have cleared historical burdens, setting a solid foundation for profit growth in 2025. The company is expected to benefit from improved operating conditions as the supply-demand imbalance in the raw milk market gradually eases [7] - The main business shows strong resilience, with operating profit margins expected to improve due to declining raw milk prices and various efficiency enhancement measures [7] - The company emphasizes stable cash flow and shareholder returns, planning to declare dividends while excluding the impact of impairment provisions [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 886.82 billion, 936.85 billion, and 96.714 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -10.08%, +5.64%, and +3.23% [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company has been revised to 110.14 million, 4.83 billion, and 5.42 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -97.71%, +4288.93%, and +12% [7] - The report indicates a significant increase in the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024 to 575.24, with subsequent years at 13.11 and 11.68 [7] Market Data - The closing price of Mengniu Dairy is reported at HKD 17.26, with a market capitalization of approximately 67.62 billion HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.52 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.21% [6] Cash Flow and Profitability - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 3.12 billion RMB, with a stable cash flow outlook despite the anticipated impairments [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 37.99% in 2024, with net profit margin projected at 0.12% [8]