高盛：阿里巴巴

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba Group with a lifted 12-month target price to US$160/HK$156 from US$117/HK$114 [2][3][29] Core Insights - Alibaba's domestic eCommerce profits are stabilizing, with expectations of stable absolute Taobao-Tmall EBITA for FY26-27E [2][3] - Alibaba Cloud revenue growth is projected to accelerate to +23%/+25% for FY26/27E, up from +13%/+14% [2][3] - The report highlights the significant increase in AI-related capital expenditures, with a targeted annual capex of Rmb100bn (approximately US$14bn) [7][8] Summary by Business Segments eCommerce - Domestic eCommerce market share and profits are stabilizing, with CMR growth of +9$96 per ADS [5][6] - Forecasted CMR growth for 4QFY25E/FY26/FY27E is 6%/5%/4% respectively, reflecting ongoing competition in the eCommerce sector [5][6] Cloud Services - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to reach +23%/+25% YoY for FY26/27E, driven by rising AI demand and a strong public cloud performance [15][16] - The cloud valuation has been lifted to US$31 per ADS from US$19, reflecting the anticipated growth in AI infrastructure [7][8] International eCommerce - AIDC is expected to achieve a single quarter EBITA profit turnaround in FY26E, despite wider losses in the previous quarter [9][10] Local Services - Revenue for local services grew by +12% YoY to Rmb17.0bn, with adjusted EBITA loss narrowing significantly [17][18] Non-Core Segments - Losses in non-core business segments are narrowing, with improved operating efficiency in local services and digital media [19][20] Shareholder Returns - The report notes a quarterly buyback of US$1.3bn, although the pace has moderated compared to previous quarters [22][23]