LENOVO GROUP-联想集团：FY25Q3业绩点评报告：FY25Q3业绩大幅增长，ISG业务扭亏为盈-20250221

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (0992.HK) [6] Core Insights - Lenovo Group's FY25Q3 revenue reached $18.8 billion, representing a 20% year-over-year increase and a 5% quarter-over-quarter increase, with all business segments achieving double-digit year-over-year growth [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was$ 690 million, a 106% increase year-over-year, and a non-HKFRS net profit of $430 million, reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth [1] - The non-PC business accounted for 46% of total revenue, up 4 percentage points year-over-year [1] Summary by Sections IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - FY25Q3 revenue for IDG was$ 13.8 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase and a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by growth in PC and smartphone sales [2] - Lenovo maintained its position as the global leader in PC market share with a 23.5% share, and PC revenue grew by 10% year-over-year [2] - Smartphone revenue increased by 21% year-over-year, with significant growth in the Asia-Pacific and EMEA regions [2] ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG revenue reached $3.9 billion in FY25Q3, a 59% year-over-year increase and a 19% quarter-over-quarter increase, marking a turnaround to profitability with an operating profit of$ 1 million [3] - The growth was primarily driven by strong demand for servers, with AI server revenue showing robust growth [3] - The company expects the server market to grow at a CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2027 [3] SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG revenue was $2.3 billion in FY25Q3, a 12% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a consistent double-digit growth over 15 consecutive quarters [4] - The operating profit margin for SSG was 20%, with maintenance and project solutions services contributing significantly to revenue growth [4] - The IT services market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.4% from 2024 to 2027 [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the FY25 net profit forecast by 18% to$ 1.558 billion, and the FY26 and FY27 net profit forecasts by 3% and 8% to $1.748 billion and$ 2.159 billion, respectively [4] - The current stock price of HKD 11.78 corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12 for FY25 and 11 for FY26 [4] - The company is expected to benefit from consumer demand driven by AI PC and aims to reshape its valuation through a focus on AI PC hardware and software ecosystems [4]