Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 64.86 for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the 2025 policy goal of stabilizing the market, which is expected to lead to a recovery in transaction volumes and housing prices. The "three wings" business model is rapidly developing and maturing [4][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 60,669 million in 2022, with a projected increase to HKD 126,029 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2018 to 2023. The adjusted net profit is expected to grow from HKD 5,883 million in 2023 to HKD 8,547 million in 2026 [6][27]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be HKD 2.41, HKD 2.60, and HKD 3.12 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a reference PE of 23 times for the target price calculation [4]. Business Model and Strategy - The company is transforming from a traditional real estate agency to a technology-driven integrated residential service platform, leveraging a digital infrastructure that includes the ACN network and property dictionary [11]. - The "one body and three wings" strategy includes core brokerage services and expansion into home decoration, rental services, and development services, which are becoming significant growth drivers [27][11]. Market Position - The company holds approximately 25% market share in the existing housing brokerage business, with significant growth potential as it expands into lower-tier cities [11]. - The company completed around 4.4 million property transactions in 2023, with a total transaction value of HKD 31,429 billion, indicating strong market presence [11]. Revenue Composition - The revenue from non-brokerage businesses has been increasing, contributing 25% in 2023 and projected to rise to 36% in 2024, highlighting the diversification of income sources [28][27]. - The company’s gross margin has improved since 2022, driven by higher profitability from existing housing and home decoration services [32]. Management and Governance - The company has a dual-class share structure, with the core management team holding nearly 50% of the voting rights, ensuring strong governance and strategic direction [22][24].
贝壳-W：首次报告：平台溢价，不惧牛熊-20250223