银行业周报：2024Q4主要监管指标发布，国股行业绩边际回暖

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][11]. Core Views - The banking sector's performance shows marginal recovery in 2024 Q4, with a total net profit of 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Large banks and joint-stock banks have shown improved profit growth, while city commercial banks and rural commercial banks face pressure [6][11]. - The asset growth rate of the banking industry has slowed significantly due to debt resolution and insufficient credit demand. As of the end of Q4 2024, the banking industry's assets grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with large commercial banks at 7.6% and joint-stock commercial banks at 4.7% [6][29]. - Loan growth has also slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in Q4 2024. Large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks saw loan growth rates of 9.0%, 4.2%, 8.1%, and 7.6%, respectively [7][29]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was relatively stable at 1.52%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter and a decrease of 17 basis points year-on-year. The expected decline in net interest margin for 2025 is anticipated to be less than in 2024 due to deposit repricing [7][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The banking index fell by 0.65%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.53 percentage points. Large banks and joint-stock banks performed relatively better [3][14]. Funding Market - Short-term funding rates have risen, with the central bank's net withdrawal of 18.2 billion yuan. The average rates for various borrowing terms have increased, indicating a tightening funding environment [20][22]. Industry Dynamics - The banking sector's performance indicators for Q4 2024 show a marginal recovery, with large banks and joint-stock banks improving their profit growth. The overall asset growth has slowed, and the loan growth rate has also decreased, particularly for city commercial banks [6][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: first, high-quality regional banks are expected to provide higher dynamic dividend yields during economic recovery; second, state-owned large banks still hold significant high dividend value. The industry rating remains "Overweight" [11][36].