高盛：中国房地产-随着新房搜索量和二手房带看量的增加，房产交易呈向好态势

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in property transactions, with primary sales volume increasing by 33% week-over-week (wow) and 29% year-over-year (yoy), while secondary transactions rose by 23% wow and 72% yoy [7][42]. - The easing measures implemented have led to a significant improvement in new home searches, with the heat index for new home searches up by 1.5% wow and 6% above pre-easing levels [4][19]. - The report indicates that the average inventory balance has decreased by 0.1% wow and 0.4% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 25.5 [11][55]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) proposed coordinated support for property developer financing to mitigate bond default risks, aligning with the National Association of Financial Regulators' (NAFR) recommendations [3]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) has requested an accelerated development of a wait-list system for affordable housing participants and expanded affordable housing supply [3]. Market Performance - In the primary market, tier-1 cities saw an average sales volume increase of 34% wow and 43% yoy, while the Pearl River Delta (PRD) cities experienced a 48% wow and 72% yoy increase [25][27]. - Secondary market performance showed a 72% yoy increase in sales volume, with agents and homeowners expressing negative price appreciation expectations [42]. Sales and Completions - Year-to-date (YTD) primary gross floor area (GFA) sold was up 10% yoy, while secondary GFA sold was up 12% yoy [39][44]. - The report anticipates a 20% yoy decline in completions for January 2025, with a projected 3% yoy increase for the full year [60][63]. Valuations - Offshore developers are trading at an average 34% discount to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV) and 0.4 times 2025 estimated price-to-book (P/B) ratio [68]. - Onshore developers are trading at a 20% discount to end-2025 estimated NAV and 0.5 times 2025 estimated P/B ratio [68].