Nvidia-英伟达：Blackwell推动收入强劲增长-20250303

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nvidia (NVDA.US) with a target price slightly adjusted to $143.0, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of$ 120.2 [1][5][22]. Core Insights - Nvidia's revenue for FY4Q25 reached $39.331 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 78% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%, exceeding previous guidance and market expectations by approximately$ 1 billion [2][15]. - The company anticipates a median revenue of $43 billion for FY1Q26, also above market consensus [2]. - Nvidia's gross margin for FY4Q25 was reported at 73.0%, a decline of 2.9 percentage points year-over-year and 1.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to the ramp-up of Blackwell production [2][15]. - The net profit for FY4Q25 grew by 80% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing market expectations [2][15]. - The report highlights Nvidia as a key beneficiary of the AI large model industry's growth, driven by innovations from DeepSeek and the scaling law effects in various segments [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Nvidia's projected revenues for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024:$ 60.922 billion - FY2025: $130.497 billion - FY2026E:$ 201.305 billion - FY2027E: $252.321 billion - FY2028E:$ 292.164 billion - The net profit projections for the same period are: - FY2024: $29.760 billion - FY2025:$ 72.880 billion - FY2026E: $109.193 billion - FY2027E:$ 143.118 billion - FY2028E: $160.114 billion [4][13]. Market Performance and Valuation - Nvidia's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 25.9x, significantly lower than its July 2024 peak of 42.7x and below its historical average by one standard deviation, enhancing its valuation attractiveness [1][22]. - The report indicates that Nvidia's GPU products are positioned to benefit from the scaling laws associated with AI large models, which are expected to drive demand across various sectors, including startups [3][29].