MILKYWAY(603713) 山西证券·2025-03-05 12:23Investment Rating - The report assigns an AA- rating to the convertible bond of the company, with a bond balance of 872 million yuan as of March 4, 2025, and a closing price of 119.82 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company, 密尔克卫 (603713.SH), is a leading specialized chemical supply chain service provider in China, focusing on hazardous chemical logistics. The total market capitalization is 7.805 billion yuan, with a TTM PE of 15.0x [2]. - The hazardous chemical logistics market is expected to continue growing, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.16% from 2015 to 2023, projected to reach 2.85 trillion yuan by 2025. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated increase in industry concentration [3]. - The company has established a robust logistics network with over 600,000 square meters of hazardous chemical warehouses, primarily located in key chemical parks. The regulatory environment makes it difficult for competitors to replicate these resources, creating a significant competitive moat [4]. - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in revenue and 21.7% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024. Forecasts indicate a net profit growth of 18.33% and 15.97% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The convertible bond is currently priced at a reasonable level, with its absolute price not high and a small bond balance. The bond is approaching its put-back period, increasing the likelihood of a downward adjustment in the future [5].