XCMG(000425) 开源证券·2025-03-10 12:51Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for XCMG [4]. Core Views - XCMG is a leading player in the engineering machinery sector, benefiting from a recovery in traditional segments and breakthroughs in emerging sectors like mining machinery and aerial work platforms. The company is expected to enter a new growth phase, supported by industry recovery and a strong dividend policy [4][5]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.2 billion, 8.0 billion, and 10.0 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.2, 14.1, and 11.2 [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - XCMG is recognized as a comprehensive leader in engineering machinery, with a diverse product range and a strong focus on technological innovation. The company has established numerous R&D platforms and has received multiple national awards for technological advancements [15]. - The company is positioned as a significant player in both domestic and international markets, ranking among the top in various machinery categories [21][39]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The engineering machinery sector is expected to experience a rebound driven by domestic demand and policy support, with excavator sales projected to recover to a mid-level of 150,000 to 200,000 units annually [5]. - The global excavator market saw sales of 540,000 units in 2023, with China accounting for 90,000 units, indicating substantial growth potential in overseas markets [5]. 3. Mining Machinery Market - The global mining machinery market is valued at approximately 118.3 billion USD, with XCMG being a top player in this segment. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming replacement cycle in mining equipment [6][37]. 4. Corporate Reform and Strategy - XCMG's mixed-ownership reform is expected to enhance operational flexibility and profitability, with commitments to return at least 40% of distributable profits as dividends over the next three years [7]. - The company has a robust international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 40% of total income in 2023, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [56]. 5. Financial Performance and Projections - XCMG's revenue for 2023 was approximately 129.6 billion USD, with a global market share of 5.3%, ranking it third globally [21][24]. - The company anticipates revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 91.998 billion, 104.148 billion, and 118.582 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8].