CMOC(603993) 民生证券·2025-03-11 08:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to stabilize cobalt prices, with a projected global supply reduction of approximately 25% [1][2]. - The market has two main misconceptions regarding the company's investment value: first, the company has sufficient cobalt in transit inventory to benefit from price increases; second, the market underestimates the potential for a long-term rise in cobalt prices due to the DRC's strong interest in supporting price increases [2][3]. - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the anticipated implementation of a quota system, which could elevate the profit margins for cobalt production [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Cobalt Export Ban and Price Stabilization - The DRC's four-month suspension of cobalt exports aims to address oversupply and stabilize prices, as the DRC accounts for approximately 76% of global cobalt production [1][10]. - The ban is expected to shift the cobalt market from surplus to a potential deficit, leading to a clearer price floor [1][13]. Section 2: Company Position and Inventory Dynamics - The company is a leading player in the cobalt industry, with significant operations in the DRC, holding substantial cobalt resources [16][18]. - Short-term performance is supported by in-transit inventory, which is estimated at around 28,500 tons, allowing the company to capitalize on immediate price increases [2][34]. - Long-term profitability is projected to rise significantly with the introduction of a quota system, potentially increasing net profit per ton of cobalt from 0.92 million yuan to 5.13 million yuan [3][44]. Section 3: Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 133.23 billion yuan, 151.20 billion yuan, and 170.24 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.62, 0.70, and 0.79 yuan [3][48]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 13X for 2024, 11X for 2025, and 10X for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [3][48].