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南华期货:2024年年报点评:业绩符合预期,境外业务表现亮眼-20250311

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Nanhua Futures [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with notable growth in overseas business despite a decline in total revenue [8] - The report highlights a significant increase in net interest income due to favorable overseas interest rates, while commission income from futures brokerage has decreased [8] - The company plans to list in Hong Kong to enhance its overseas business capabilities and competitiveness [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Nanhua Futures achieved total revenue of 5.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 458 million yuan, an increase of 13.96% [8] - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 11.71%, up by 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [8] Revenue Breakdown - Commission income fell by 11% to 540 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in futures brokerage revenue [8] - Net interest income rose by 25% to 680 million yuan, attributed to the sustained high-interest environment overseas [8] - Investment income dropped by 64% to 60 million yuan, mainly due to reduced profits from risk management business [8] Business Segments - Futures brokerage revenue decreased by 13% to 490 million yuan, with a gross margin decline of 11.38 percentage points to 7.13% [8] - Wealth management revenue faced pressure, down 24% to 70 million yuan, with a significant drop in the management scale of Nanhua Fund [8] - Overseas business revenue increased by 15% to 650 million yuan, indicating strong performance in this segment [8] Future Outlook - The report projects net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 to be 539 million yuan and 588 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.72% and 9.15% [8] - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 13.74, 12.59, and 11.12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8]