高盛：美国经济：更新我们的经济预测以纳入更大幅度的关税上调

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report revises baseline tariff assumptions to include higher tariffs, particularly on product-specific categories such as autos, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals, which could lead to a significant increase in the effective tariff rate [2][9] - The expected increase in tariffs is projected to raise consumer prices and impact GDP growth negatively, with a peak hit to year-on-year GDP growth estimated at -0.8 percentage points under the new assumptions [3][28] - The report indicates a higher probability of recession, now estimated at 20%, due to the potential economic impact of larger tariffs [4][43] Summary by Sections Tariff Assumptions - The report anticipates further product-specific tariffs and reciprocal tariffs that could raise the effective tariff rate by approximately 10 percentage points, with a risk scenario suggesting a potential increase of up to 15 percentage points [2][10] - Current tariffs, including a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum and a 20 percentage point increase on imports from China, have already raised the effective tariff rate by about 3.3 percentage points [9][11] Economic Impact - The revised forecast for GDP growth in 2025 has been lowered to 1.7% from a previous estimate of 2.2%, reflecting the additional drag from larger tariffs [4][36] - Core PCE inflation is expected to rise to around 3% year-on-year under the new tariff assumptions, compared to a previous expectation of a decline to 2.1% [21][22] Policy and Market Reactions - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts in response to the economic risks posed by the new tariff environment, with two cuts expected in 2025 [47][49] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to have a significant impact on business investment, contributing to a more cautious economic outlook [24][28]