高盛：亚洲股市展望：在关税与人工智能的浪潮中找准航向

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on China and Japan, a Market Weight (MW) rating on India, Korea, and Taiwan, and a downgrade to Market Weight for Indonesia while upgrading Singapore to Overweight [4][27][57]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of tariffs and AI developments on investment strategies, particularly focusing on China and Japan as favorable markets [4][19][27]. - There is a noted shift in AI investment focus from infrastructure to application layers, benefiting China, while Japan's investment case remains strong despite recent market performance [19][27][37]. Summary by Sections Investor Feedback - Recent investor discussions have centered around tariffs, AI, macro policy, and geopolitical risks, with a strong interest in China equities despite some investors holding negative views [4][5]. Tariffs - The report outlines concerns regarding tariffs, particularly the potential for reciprocal tariffs impacting Asian economies, with a key risk period identified in early April [6][12]. - A 10% universal tariff could lead to a 3% hit to regional earnings and a 4% decline in valuations, with Taiwan and Korea being the most affected [10][13]. AI - The report notes a shift in AI focus towards application layers, particularly benefiting China, with significant revenue exposure in Taiwan (74%), China offshore (55%), and Korea (44%) [19][20]. - The proliferation of low-cost, high-performance AI models is seen as supportive for market views, with a preference for sectors like internet, media, and entertainment [21][28]. China - The investment case for China is bolstered by positive AI developments and policy support, with a target for the MSCI China Index raised from 75 to 85, reflecting a 9% earnings growth forecast [27][28]. - Key themes for investment include AI applications, government spending beneficiaries, and shareholder returns [29]. Japan - Japan's investment outlook remains favorable with strong earnings growth expectations and a current forward P/E valuation of 13.4x, despite recent market underperformance [37][38]. India - The report indicates a stabilization in India's economic growth, but risks remain from small/mid-cap (SMID) exposure and potential tariff impacts, leading to a market weight rating [42][43]. Korea and Taiwan - Both markets are rated at market weight, with a focus on alpha opportunities in sectors like defense and technology, particularly in relation to Apple suppliers in Taiwan [50][51]. ASEAN - The report suggests a reset in preferences for ASEAN markets, upgrading Singapore to overweight due to its stability and growth potential while downgrading Indonesia due to economic concerns [57][59]. Key Alpha Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying alpha themes within a moderately constructive beta backdrop, focusing on sectors like defense, AI applications, and quality stocks with strong balance sheets [66][71].