LFX(600612) 天风证券·2025-03-13 08:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on its performance in 2024, with a projected revenue of 56.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 20.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [1][3]. - The report highlights a weak consumption environment and rising gold prices as key factors impacting the company's performance, with domestic gold jewelry consumption expected to drop by 24.7% in 2024 [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence through the expansion of themed stores and upgrading retail store images, despite a net decrease in total marketing outlets [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a net profit margin of 3.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for Q4 2024 is projected at 4.1%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.95 billion, 2.10 billion, and 2.26 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 [3][4]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates of -20.5% for 2024, followed by a recovery of 4.7% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging the trend of domestic "trendy goods" consumption, launching new product lines such as "Dragon's Affection" gold and jade jewelry, aiming to create a series of "fashionable new classics" [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing store layouts and enhancing brand positioning through various types of stores, including "Treasure Gold" and "Fengxiang Celebration" [3].