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友邦保险2024年报点评:均衡发展,回购小增
01299AIA(01299) 浙商证券·2025-03-15 10:23

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In 2024, AIA Group reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.836billion,anincreaseof846.836 billion, an increase of 84% year-on-year at constant exchange rates. The after-tax operating profit was 6.605 billion, and the new business value (NBV) reached 4.712billion,reflectingayearonyearincreaseof74.712 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% and 18% respectively. The embedded value (EV) stood at 69.035 billion, up 4% from the beginning of the year. The final dividend was HK1.31pershare,a101.31 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, with the total annual dividend rising by 9%, aligning with expectations [1][4][6]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - AIA Group's total investment scale reached 288.621 billion by the end of 2024, marking a 7.5% increase from the beginning of the year. The net and total investment yield for non-participating and surplus assets remained stable at 4.3% and 4.8% respectively, with net investment performance increasing by 133.4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4][6]. Liability Side - The NBV growth rate for 2024 was 18%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024, but still indicating robust growth. The main driver was the new annualized premium income, which reached 8.606billion,up148.606 billion, up 14% year-on-year. The new business profitability also improved, with the value rate increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [2][3]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the NBV growth rates for various regions were as follows: Hong Kong +23%, Mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other regions +18%. Hong Kong led with an NBV of 1.764 billion, benefiting from strong growth in local and visitor business [3]. Shareholder Returns - AIA Group announced a new share buyback program of 1.6billion,slightlyincreasingitsshareholderreturnstrategy.Theexpectedcompletionofthisbuybackiswithin2025,andthetotalshareholderreturn,includingdividendsandbuybacks,isestimatedtoyieldadividendyieldofapproximately61.6 billion, slightly increasing its shareholder return strategy. The expected completion of this buyback is within 2025, and the total shareholder return, including dividends and buybacks, is estimated to yield a dividend yield of approximately 6% based on the company's market capitalization at the end of the previous year [5][6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Given the strong growth momentum in diverse business markets and the expected opening of new branches, the profit forecast for AIA Group has been revised upward. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 2.2%, 25.0%, and 10.4% respectively. The target price is set at HK83.3, corresponding to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 1.5 times for 2025, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][13].