PAB(000001) 申万宏源·2025-03-16 08:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank [1] Core Views - The capital market has anticipated the pressure on Ping An Bank's profit for 2024, primarily due to a continuous decline in revenue and proactive provisioning, which has turned profit growth negative. The bank's revenue for 2024 decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 4.2% [6][8] - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of the retail structure and a reduction in high-risk loans, indicating that credit growth will depend on the recovery of demand from low-risk retail customers [6][11] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for Ping An Bank from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Total revenue (million): 2023: 164,699, 2024: 146,695, 2025E: 134,677, 2026E: 133,440, 2027E: 138,182 [5] - Net profit (million): 2023: 46,455, 2024: 44,508, 2025E: 44,109, 2026E: 44,407, 2027E: 45,677 [5] - The report projects a decline in net profit growth rates for 2025-2026, with estimates of -0.9% and 0.7% respectively [6][9] Key Financial Metrics - As of the end of 2024, the bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.06%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 251% [4][6] - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 1.7%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 17 basis points [9][12] - The report notes a significant reduction in retail loans, with a total decrease of 334 billion yuan in 2024, including a reduction of over 210 billion yuan in retail loans [6][11] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The report emphasizes the importance of actively managing problem assets and maintaining a stable asset quality, with a focus on potential risks in real estate loans and retail loan risk mitigation [9][14] - The bank's proactive approach to asset write-offs and provisioning is highlighted as a strategic move to strengthen its financial position [9][14] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 has been reduced to 28.3%, aligning with the industry average, which corresponds to an estimated dividend yield of approximately 5.08% for 2025 [6][9]