Beibu Gulf Port (000582) 信达证券·2025-03-18 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Beibu Gulf Port (000582) is "Accumulate" [2] Core Viewpoints - Beibu Gulf Port is the only operator of public terminals in the Beibu Gulf region of Guangxi, actively responding to the trend of port industry consolidation and continuously expanding cargo sources and capacity. The long-term growth potential of throughput is supported by the regional synergy driven by the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [6][10] - The company is expected to achieve a cargo throughput of 328 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.76% from 2021 to 2024. The container throughput is projected to reach 9.0152 million TEUs, with a CAGR of 14.46% during the same period, placing throughput scale at the upper level of the industry [6][16] - Financially, the company achieved revenue of 4.902 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 916 million yuan, up 8.06% year-on-year. The company's ROE was 8.50% in 2023, exceeding the average level of the port sector by 1.52 percentage points [6][19][24] Summary by Sections Section 1: Beibu Gulf Port Overview - Beibu Gulf Port operates three ports: Beihai Port, Qinzhou Port, and Fangcheng Port, with a total of 89 coastal productive berths and an annual throughput capacity of 392 million tons [12] - The company has actively integrated provincial assets and responded to the trend of port consolidation, enhancing its operational efficiency and market position [14] Section 2: Port Industry Trends - The port industry in China is maturing, with a focus on cargo handling as the main business. The economic hinterland determines business scale, while capacity, throughput, and handling fee rates dictate profit margins [27] - The trend of regional consolidation is driven by the need to alleviate competition among peers, with a preliminary formation of "one province, one port" [35] Section 3: Long-term Growth Potential - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor is expected to enhance the existing channel capacity in the western region, driving regional collaboration and increasing throughput potential [11][10] - The company’s hinterland demand is expected to grow, benefiting from the construction of the Pinglu Canal, which is projected to significantly increase cargo transport volumes by 2035 and 2050 [11][10] Section 4: Capacity Expansion and Cost Management - The company is confident in its long-term throughput growth, as evidenced by its ongoing capital expenditures and capacity expansion projects [6][10] - The impact of depreciation on costs is manageable, as fixed asset depreciation remains below 30% of operating costs [6][10] Section 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.32 billion yuan, 7.99 billion yuan, and 8.30 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.167 billion yuan, 1.179 billion yuan, and 1.269 billion yuan [7][6] - The current valuation is considered undervalued, leading to the "Accumulate" rating [6][7]