Beibu Gulf Port (000582) 信达证券·2025-03-18 10:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for Beibu Gulf Port (000582) is "Accumulate" [2] Core Viewpoints - Beibu Gulf Port is the core port in Southwest China, actively responding to the trend of port industry consolidation and continuously expanding cargo sources and capacity. The long-term growth potential of throughput is expected to be released, driven by the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [10][11] - The company is the only operator of public terminals in the Beibu Gulf region, operating Beihai Port, Qinzhou Port, and Fangcheng Port. The throughput scale and profitability are at the upper level of the industry [6][12] - The company achieved a cargo throughput of 328 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.76% from 2021 to 2024, and a container throughput of 9.0152 million TEUs, with a CAGR of 14.46% during the same period [6][16] - Financially, the company reported revenue of 4.902 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 916 million yuan, up 8.06% year-on-year. The ROE for 2023 was 8.50%, exceeding the average level of the port sector by 1.52 percentage points [6][19][24] Summary by Sections 1. Beibu Gulf Port: Core Port in Southwest China - Beibu Gulf Port operates three ports and has a total cargo throughput capacity of 392 million tons and a container throughput capacity of 9.8 million TEUs [12] - The company has a clear division of labor among its ports, with Qinzhou Port contributing nearly 80% of container throughput [12][22] 2. Port Industry: Trend of Regional Consolidation - The port industry in China is mature, with cargo handling as the core business. The economic hinterland determines the business scale, while capacity, throughput, and handling fee rates determine profit margins [27][28] - The industry is experiencing a trend of consolidation due to past overcapacity and intensified competition, leading to a gradual return to rational pricing [27][35] 3. Long-term Growth Potential Supported by the Western Land-Sea New Corridor - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor is expected to enhance the existing capacity of western regions and promote regional collaboration, with significant strategic implications for throughput growth [10][11] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing import and export demands of regions like Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou, especially with the implementation of RCEP [11][18] 4. Continuous Capacity Expansion Reflects Confidence - The company is actively investing in capacity expansion, supported by policies related to the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, indicating confidence in long-term throughput growth [10][11] - The impact of depreciation on costs is manageable, as depreciation accounts for less than 30% of operating costs [10][11] 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.32 billion yuan, 7.99 billion yuan, and 8.30 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.167 billion yuan, 1.179 billion yuan, and 1.269 billion yuan [7][19] - The current valuation is considered low, leading to the "Accumulate" rating [7][19]