华润啤酒（00291）：啤酒升级持续，白酒受益协同

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the beer upgrade continues while the liquor business benefits from synergy. The company has shown resilience in its performance despite a slight decline in revenue and profit [6] - The company is undergoing a structural upgrade in its beer segment, with a focus on high-end products, which is expected to drive profit growth [6] - The liquor business is expected to contribute positively if economic conditions improve, indicating potential for future growth [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 38,932 million, with a slight decline to RMB 38,635 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 39,286 million in 2025 [5][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from RMB 5,153 million in 2023 to RMB 4,739 million in 2024, before increasing to RMB 5,279 million in 2025 [5][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 1.59 in 2023, decreasing to RMB 1.46 in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 1.63 in 2025 [5] - The net asset return rate is projected to decline slightly from 17.98% in 2023 to 15.29% in 2024, before stabilizing around 15.95% in 2025 [5] Business Performance Insights - The beer segment reported a revenue of RMB 36,486 million in 2024, with a slight decline in sales volume but an increase in average price per ton [6] - The high-end beer segment (priced above RMB 10) saw a 9% increase in sales volume, with notable growth in brands like Heineken and Snow [6] - The liquor segment achieved a revenue of RMB 2,150 million in 2024, with a 35% increase in sales volume for the flagship product, indicating strong market performance [6]