Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation sector, suggesting that seasonal ticket prices may exceed expectations, and continues to be bullish on the aviation market [5][11]. Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector has shown resilience, with a notable recovery in stock prices for airlines like Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines, driven by a return of market funds to previously corrected sectors and a decline in Brent crude oil prices, which alleviates cost pressures for airlines [5][11]. - The report emphasizes that the aviation market in 2025 remains promising, with a slowdown in new aircraft supply and a gradual recovery in aircraft utilization rates, leading to a decline in capacity growth rates. The demand side is supported by resilient business travelers and the ongoing development of the silver economy, indicating sustained growth in aviation demand [5][11]. - The report highlights that with high passenger load factors and increased regulatory oversight on pricing by the Civil Aviation Administration, there is a strong foundation for ticket price increases in 2025. Airports are also expected to benefit from the recovery in aviation demand, leading to significant improvements in both aviation and non-aviation revenues [5][11]. Summary by Sections Key Targets - Recommended stocks include: - Jixiang Airlines: Projected P/E ratios for 2025-2026 are 15.37X and 11.48X, respectively, benefiting from a dual-brand strategy and a comprehensive passenger coverage [11]. - Spring Airlines: Projected P/E ratios for 2025-2026 are 17.09X and 13.40X, recognized as a leading low-cost carrier with strong cost control [11]. - Huaxia Airlines: Projected P/E ratios for 2025-2026 are 9.97X and 8.45X, currently in a performance rebound phase with significant growth potential in the regional aviation market [11]. - Southern Airlines: Projected P/E ratios for 2025-2026 are 19.37X and 13.43X, focusing on building comprehensive international hubs [11]. - China Eastern Airlines: Noted for its strong position in domestic and international routes, with significant recovery potential as travel demand increases [11]. - Shanghai Airport: Projected P/E ratios for 2025-2026 are 30.31X and 23.67X, benefiting from synergies post-restructuring with Hongqiao Airport [11]. Aviation and Airport Data Tracking - The report tracks key metrics such as daily flight operations and average aircraft utilization rates, noting a week-on-week decline in both metrics across major airlines [5][12]. - Passenger throughput data for major airports shows a positive trend, with significant year-on-year increases in passenger numbers at airports like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [42][49].
淡季票价或超预期，持续看多航空行情
中泰证券·2025-03-03 12:49