SMIC(00981) 中航证券·2025-03-13 01:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [5][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that SMIC is a key player in the rise of "Chinese chips" amid escalating US-China tech tensions, with stricter scrutiny on semiconductor supply chains starting in 2025 [1][2]. - The semiconductor demand is expected to grow moderately, with advanced processes helping the company navigate through market cycles [2]. - SMIC is making significant capital expenditures to strengthen its position, with plans to double its production capacity over the next few years [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - SMIC is the largest foundry in mainland China and the third largest globally, providing a range of technology nodes from 0.35μm to 14nm FinFET [1]. - The company is strategically positioned in the semiconductor industry, especially as the US imposes tighter restrictions on technology access [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, SMIC's total revenue is projected to reach 7.5 billion in 2025, with significant investments in expanding its production capacity [3]. Capacity Expansion - SMIC is currently constructing four 12-inch wafer fabs with a combined capacity planning of 340,000 wafers per month, which is nearly double its 2023 capacity [3]. - The company has been increasing its investments in key equipment to support advanced process expansion, particularly in its Shanghai facility [3]. Market Trends - The report notes a recovery in consumer electronics driven by AI innovations, with increased demand for products in the home appliance and 3C sectors expected in 2025 [2]. - The trend of "local for local" sourcing is anticipated to benefit SMIC as overseas sanctions continue [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory with expected revenues of 11.74 billion in 2026 [7][8]. - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit margins, with a projected net profit of 492.74 million in 2024 [8][10].