2025年04月27日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 本期（2025.4.21-2025.4.25）非银（申万）指数+1.17%、行业排 14/31．券商 II 指数+0.89%,保险Ⅱ指数+1.35%; 上证综指+0.56%,深证成指+1.38%,创业板指+1.74%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：拉卡拉（+23.83%）、海南华铁（+6.85%）、国信证券 (+5.85%）、中油资本（+5.08%）、瑞达期货（+4.60%）； 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：永安期货（-3.40%）、锦龙股份（-2.45%）、天风证券 (-2.22%）、华金资本（-1.82%）、招商证券（-1.46%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.89%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.50pct,跑赢上证综 指数 0.33pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.33 倍，位于 2020 年 20 分位点附近，处 于历史低位。 本周, 上市券商陆续发布 2025 年一季报。截至 4 月 26 日,以东方财富为代表的 19 家券商已披露 2025 年一季报，除个别券商外,业绩均报喜。23 日,西 ...

2025年04月 30 E 证券研究报告|公司研究|公司点评 康辰药业（603590） 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报点评:计提商誉减值 影响短期业绩,营销转型和差异化管线未来可期 ◆ 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报: 2024年，公司实现营业收入 8.25 亿元，同比下降 10.28%；归母净利 润 4,221.67 万元，同比下降 71.94%，扣非后归母净利润 3,107.68 万元, 同比下降 75.52%。2025年第一季度,公司实现营业收入 2.12 亿元,同比 增长 6.41%;实现归母净利润 4449.74 万元,同比增长 6.83%,扣非后归 母净利润 4389.96 万元、同比增长 10.70%。 ◆ 受计提商誉减值等影响，2024 年归母净利润短暂下滑 2024 年，公司"苏灵"实现营业收入 5.92 亿元,同比下降 3.54%。 "密盖息"实现营业收入 2.33 亿元，同比下降 21.55%。公司营业收入短 期下滑,主要是由于部分省份实施集采,"密盖息"业务出现阶段性下滑。 公司净利润下滑 71.94%，主要是受到计提"密盖息"资产组商誉减值及上 期"密盖息"资产的支出 ...

市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.89%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.50pct,跑赢上证综 指数 0.33pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.33 倍，位于 2020 年 20 分位点附近，处 于历史低位。 2025年04月27日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报（2025年第十三期）： 券商一季报陆续发布,看好券商板块机会 市场表现: 本期（2025.4.21-2025.4.25）非银（申万）指数+1.17%、行业排 14/31．券商 II 指数+0.89%,保险Ⅱ指数+1.35%; 上证综指+0.56%,深证成指+1.38%,创业板指+1.74%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：拉卡拉（+23.83%）、海南华铁（+6.85%）、国信证券 (+5.85%）、中油资本（+5.08%）、瑞达期货（+4.60%）； 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：永安期货（-3.40%）、锦龙股份（-2.45%）、天风证券 (-2.22%）、华金资本（-1.82%）、招商证券（-1.46%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 本周, 上市券商陆续发布 2025 年一季报。截至 4 月 26 日, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated sustained high growth in performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 4.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.64%, and a net profit of 0.497 billion yuan, up 514.49% [1][2]. - The company is benefiting from a strong recovery in domestic automotive demand and is accelerating its layout in the new energy vehicle sector, leading to significant improvements in profitability [2][3]. - The company is expanding its product and customer boundaries, with strong growth momentum in its main business areas, including automotive interior and exterior parts, precision components, and new energy power systems [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 4.91 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.497 billion yuan, and in Q1 2025, revenues were 1.29 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.97% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 includes 2.63 billion yuan from interior and exterior parts, 1.31 billion yuan from wheel hub bearings, and 0.675 billion yuan from new energy motors, with respective growth rates of 10.7%, 8.7%, and 148.6% [2][4]. - The company expects revenues of 5.83 billion yuan, 6.73 billion yuan, and 7.75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.547 billion yuan, 0.670 billion yuan, and 0.801 billion yuan [12][13]. Product and Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and customer base, with significant developments in automotive components and new energy systems, including partnerships with major automotive manufacturers [3][4]. - The company has established a strong position in the screw industry chain, with plans to enter new fields such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy products [4][11]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its manufacturing capabilities, improving precision in production processes [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [4][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.891 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 5.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.386 billion yuan, up by 18.51% [1]. - The wealth management transformation is progressing steadily, with a significant increase in the number of high-net-worth clients and a rise in managed assets [2]. - The company faced significant pressure in equity underwriting, with a 54.84% decrease in equity underwriting scale, while bond underwriting showed strong performance with a 30.91% increase [3]. - The asset management scale slightly declined, with total assets under management at 267.392 billion yuan, down by 9.31% [4]. - The self-operated business performed well, with a revenue increase of 41.56%, and the company maintained a leading position in the derivatives market [8]. - The company is expected to further enhance its overall performance as the wealth management transformation deepens, with projected earnings per share of 1.32 yuan, 1.36 yuan, and 1.45 yuan for 2025-2027 [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net income of 10.386 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.51% growth, and a basic earnings per share of 1.13 yuan, up by 20.21% [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 was 8.82%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points from the previous year [1]. Wealth Management - The company reported net income from brokerage business of 6.183 billion yuan, an increase of 11.79%, and a significant rise in the number of wealth management clients to 627,500, a 16.66% increase [2]. - The company ranked fourth in the industry for non-monetary market funds and equity funds, with managed assets of 95.9 billion yuan and 69.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. Investment Banking - The investment banking segment saw a net income of 856 million yuan, a decrease of 34.25%, with equity underwriting down by 54.84% [3]. - Bond underwriting performed well, with a total scale of 4,265.24 billion yuan, up by 30.91%, and asset-backed securities underwriting increased by 57.84% [3]. Asset Management - The asset management business generated a net income of 717 million yuan, with total assets under management at 267.392 billion yuan, down by 9.31% [4]. Self-Operated Business - The self-operated business reported a revenue of 9.527 billion yuan, an increase of 41.56%, with a focus on bond investments [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.063 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.00% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 911 million yuan, down 9.06% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 539 million yuan, a decline of 30.32% [1][10]. - The company experienced a decline in performance due to weak market demand and rising cost pressures, particularly in Q4 2024, where revenue fell to 3.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.24% [1][10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its brand matrix and accelerating its asset-light franchise model, with plans to open 1,300 new hotels and sign 2,000 new contracts in 2025 [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 39.52%, down 2.47 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 8.14%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year [1][10]. - The company’s total assets were reported at 46.109 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 65.99% [3][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.06 yuan, with net profits expected to reach 1.133 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.36% [10][11]. Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is enhancing its digital platform, WeHotel, which has reached 205 million effective members, and is integrating various digital channels to improve operational efficiency [9][10]. - The overseas business is undergoing restructuring, with a focus on transitioning to an asset-light model, which is expected to drive profitability in the long term [9][10]. - The company aims to optimize its brand structure and expand its franchise operations, which is anticipated to improve operational leverage and scale advantages [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.063 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.00% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 911 million yuan, down 9.06% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 539 million yuan, a decline of 30.32% year-on-year [1][10]. - The company experienced a decline in performance due to weak market demand and rising cost pressures, with a gross margin of 39.52%, down 2.47 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 8.14%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year [1][10]. - The company plans to open 1,300 new hotels and sign 2,000 new contracts in 2025, aiming to enhance its brand structure and operational efficiency [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.24%, and a net profit of -195 million yuan, marking a shift to negative profitability [1][10]. - The annual revenue for 2024 was 14.063 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.00%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 911 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.06% [10]. Business Segments - The hotel room business generated a revenue of 5.517 billion yuan in 2024, down 10.94% year-on-year. Other segments, including continuous franchise and labor dispatch services, saw varied performance with revenues of 4.797 billion yuan (+2.46%) and 999 million yuan (+2.68%) respectively [10]. - The company added 968 hotels in 2024, with a focus on expanding its asset-light franchise model, resulting in a total of 13,416 hotels and 1.291 million rooms by the end of 2024 [9][10]. Digital Transformation - The company has enhanced its digital platform, WeHotel, which reached 205 million effective members by the end of 2024, integrating various customer engagement channels [9][10]. - The GPP global procurement platform aims to standardize operations and reduce costs across hotel lifecycle management [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in performance driven by the ongoing recovery in the cultural and tourism market, operational adjustments, and improvements in overseas business [9][10]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders are 1.133 billion yuan, 1.389 billion yuan, and 1.668 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06 yuan, 1.30 yuan, and 1.56 yuan [10].

Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, GDP growth was +5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of +5.2%[1] - The secondary and tertiary industries achieved GDP growth rates of +5.9% and +5.3% respectively, with manufacturing growing at +6.8%[1] - The real estate sector's value added in Q1 was only +1.0%, marking it as the slowest-growing industry in Q1 2025[1] Consumption and Investment Trends - Retail sales growth in December 2024, January, February, and March 2025 were +3.7%, +4.0%, and +5.9% respectively, indicating a continuous recovery[2] - Fixed asset investment growth rates for the same months were +3.2%, +4.1%, and +4.2%, with manufacturing investment at +9.2%, +9.0%, and +9.1%[2] - Infrastructure investment growth rates increased from +9.2% in December to +11.5% in March 2025, while real estate development investment showed a narrowing decline of -10.6% to -9.9%[2] Trade and External Factors - Export growth rates were +10.6%, +2.3%, and +12.4% for December, January, and March respectively, influenced by a "rush to export" effect due to tariff disputes[2] - The overall economic momentum in Q1 2025 was strong, but external demand pressures may lead to a downward trend in Q2 2025[3] Policy Recommendations - The necessity for proactive macroeconomic policies has increased, focusing on stable growth measures including loose monetary and fiscal policies[3] - The probability of implementing additional supportive policies has risen, especially in light of the recent trade disputes[3] Market Performance - As of April 18, 2025, the CSI REITs Index increased by +0.71%, while the CSI REITs total return rose by +0.84%[4] - The Shanghai Composite Index was up +1.19%, outperforming the CSI REITs indices[4] Liquidity Insights - Market liquidity showed a marginal decline, with average daily trading volume at 650 million CNY, down 11.08% from the previous week[11] - The average turnover rate decreased to 0.75%, indicating a slight reduction in market activity[11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][30]. Core Insights - The tourism market is showing significant recovery with three main trends: long-distance travel revival, cross-border travel increase, and county-level market expansion. The proportion of cross-city accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, and inbound travel orders have increased by 173% year-on-year, reflecting a structural upgrade in consumption [2][6][15]. - The government's recent policies, including the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," aim to boost consumption in sectors like culture and tourism, with measures such as a 30% discount on tickets and subsidies for rural tourism. These initiatives are expected to release regional and structural demand [2][18]. - The report highlights a strong pre-holiday surge in travel interest, with hotel search activity up 100% and flight searches up 80% in the past week. The trend of "low-cost, long-distance" travel is becoming established, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [2][6][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The social service sector index saw a weekly change of 0.14%, ranking 21 out of 31 in the Shenwan industry classification. The hotel and catering sub-sector performed well with a 3.65% increase [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the tourism industry, driven by policy incentives and an upgrade in consumer spending patterns. The market is characterized by long-distance travel recovery, county market expansion, and quality improvement [6][15][21]. - The county-level market is showing remarkable performance, with a 25% increase in tourism heat compared to high-tier cities, indicating a clear trend of consumption upgrading in lower-tier markets [21]. Industry News Dynamics - The report notes the increasing interest in travel among older consumers, with a significant rise in bookings from those aged 60 and above. This demographic is becoming a vital part of the travel market, contributing to the overall growth in tourism [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][30]. Core Insights - The tourism market is showing significant recovery with three main trends: long-distance travel rebounding, cross-border travel heating up, and county-level markets gaining momentum. The proportion of cross-city accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, and inbound travel orders have increased by 173% year-on-year, reflecting a structural upgrade in consumption [2][6][15]. - The government's recent policies, including the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," aim to boost consumption in sectors like culture and tourism, with measures such as a minimum 65% redemption rate for consumption vouchers and a 30% discount on tickets. These initiatives are expected to release regional and structural demand [2][18]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards "deep experiences and increased freedom," with long-distance travel gaining popularity. The proportion of orders for stays of two days or more is expected to reach 20%, indicating a trend towards deeper travel experiences [20][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The social service sector index saw a weekly change of 0.14%, ranking 21 out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry performance. The hotel and catering sub-sector performed well with a 3.65% increase [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong prelude to the May Day holiday, suggesting a revaluation of the tourism industry. The combination of policy incentives and consumption structure upgrades is expected to sustain the recovery in the cultural and tourism sector [6][15]. - The county-level market is experiencing notable growth, with tourism heat in lower-tier cities increasing by 25%, outpacing higher-tier cities by 11 percentage points. The consumption share of high-star hotels in county markets has surpassed that of high-tier cities for the first time [21] Industry News Dynamics - The report notes the increasing interest from older consumers in travel, with a significant rise in bookings from those aged 60 and above. This demographic is becoming a vital part of the tourism market, indicating a shift in consumer dynamics [22][23].