Salubris(002294) 国泰君安·2025-03-19 09:03Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][29]. Core Views - The company is deeply engaged in the cardiovascular field, with a stable cash flow from its generic drug business and multiple core innovative drugs recently approved, leading to an expected increase in the proportion of innovative revenue [3][29]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 40.1 billion, 44.2 billion, and 54.3 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +19%, +10%, and +23% [14][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 6.4 billion, 6.9 billion, and 8.31 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of +10%, +8%, and +20% [14][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company focuses on drug development in the chronic disease field, particularly cardiovascular diseases, with core products like Xinlitai, S086, and Ennadustat expected to contribute significantly to cash flow [21][29]. - The innovative drug revenue share is anticipated to increase as the company accelerates its transformation [21][29]. 2. Focus on Chronic Disease Field - The company has a comprehensive layout in the cardiovascular field, with a gradual clearing of the impact from centralized procurement, leading to stable cash flow from generic drugs [29][36]. - The innovative product pipeline is progressing steadily, with several new products expected to be launched soon [29][36]. 3. Commercial Potential of S086 and JK07 - The company maintains good growth with its core product Xinlitai, while S086 is expected to be a significant innovative product in the ARNI category, with a market potential exceeding 35 billion yuan [29][36]. - JK07, as a long-acting heart failure treatment, shows promising clinical data and is expected to read out complete Phase II data by Q4 2026 [29][36]. 4. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 3.48 billion yuan, with a net profit of 637 million yuan, and is projected to grow significantly in the coming years [14][21]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 33.266 billion yuan and a current price of 29.84 yuan, with a target price set at 35.33 yuan [5][6]. 5. Valuation Methods - The report employs both absolute and relative valuation methods, concluding a reasonable valuation of 35.33 yuan per share based on discounted cash flow (DCF) and comparable company analysis [23][27][29].