Hello (MOMO) 交银国际·2025-03-14 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to 7.17 [1][19][22]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at RMB 10,015 million, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1,239 million due to increased overseas product investments [1][6][24]. - The company announced a special dividend of 200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2,636 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94 million [6][16]. - The adjusted gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 36%, reflecting a decline due to changes in revenue structure and increased operational costs [6][17]. - The company’s market capitalization is 1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][4]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The revenue forecast for 2025 is maintained at RMB 10,015 million, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 at RMB 1,239 million and RMB 1,354 million, respectively [5][17]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1,217 million, with an operating profit margin of 12.2% [5][17]. Market Context - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 7%, with a 52-week high of 4.84 [4][24]. - The company’s main platform, Momo, and its subsidiary, Tantan, continue to face challenges due to reduced user engagement and competition in the social networking space [6][16].