PAB(000001) 华泰证券·2025-03-18 06:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 14.34 [12][5]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a retail transformation, which is expected to solidify its operational foundation despite a forecasted decline in net profit and revenue for 2024 [1][2]. - The company is focusing on improving asset quality by actively adjusting its asset structure, which is anticipated to lead to operational improvements in the future [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company's net profit, operating income, and pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) are expected to decline by 4.2%, 10.9%, and 10.6% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The proposed dividend for 2024 is RMB 0.608 per share, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 26.51% and a dividend yield of 5.08% [1]. Asset and Loan Growth - As of the end of 2024, total assets, loans, and deposits are projected to grow by 3.3%, decrease by 1.0%, and increase by 3.9%, respectively [2]. - The company has adjusted its asset structure, resulting in a 10.6% year-on-year decrease in personal loans and a 12.4% increase in corporate loans [2]. Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.87%, down by 6 basis points from the previous period [2]. - Non-interest income is expected to increase by 14.0% year-on-year, with other non-interest income rising by 68.7% [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at 1.06%, with a provision coverage ratio of 251% [4]. - The credit cost for 2024 is projected to be 1.56%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is RMB 44.68 billion, with a projected book value per share (BVPS) of RMB 23.51, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.61 [5][31]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in retail banking, justifying a valuation premium compared to peers [5].