Shenergy(600642) 东吴证券·2025-03-18 11:10Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a benchmark for high dividend yield in thermal power, with a strong focus on core assets in quality regions [9]. - The company has a diversified business model, primarily engaged in electricity and oil and gas, with thermal power maintaining a high proportion and renewable energy contributing incremental growth [17][19]. - The company benefits from a robust operational efficiency and a favorable supply-demand balance in the Shanghai region, which supports electricity prices [9][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Diversified Business Operations - The company operates in both electricity and oil and gas sectors, with thermal power accounting for nearly 80% of its installed capacity [19]. - As of Q4 2024, the company’s total installed capacity reached 17.96 million kW, with coal power at 8.4 million kW and gas power at 3.43 million kW [19]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, exceeding 55% since 2020, with a TTM dividend yield of 4.41% as of March 17, 2025 [9]. 2. Thermal Power Positioning - The company’s thermal power capacity in Shanghai accounts for 82.7% of its total, indicating a strong regional focus [9][47]. - Shanghai's electricity demand is robust, with a projected GDP of over 5 trillion yuan in 2024 and electricity consumption of 198.4 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 7% [51]. - The company’s coal power generation efficiency is superior, with a coal consumption rate of 281 grams per kWh, which is 21 grams lower than the national average [9][35]. 3. Renewable Energy Expansion - The company’s renewable energy capacity has increased to 34% of its total installed capacity, with ongoing projects in offshore wind and solar energy [9][19]. - The company is actively participating in Shanghai's offshore wind and solar energy projects, with significant capacity planned for the coming years [9][19]. - The company’s renewable energy projects are expected to contribute to its revenue starting in 2025, with major projects in Xinjiang and Hainan [9][19]. 4. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 29.142 billion yuan, a 3.36% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring to 3.459 billion yuan, up 219.52% [21]. - The report forecasts net profits of 39.8 billion yuan, 40.5 billion yuan, and 41.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.1, 11.0, and 10.7 [9][21]. - The company’s financial health is strong, with a decreasing debt-to-asset ratio, which was 54.23% as of the latest report [6][35].