东方金诚-美联储3月货币政策会议点评与展望：政策冲击不确定性增强，美联储短期内仍将保持观望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, indicating that the Federal Reserve will likely continue to observe economic conditions before making any rate changes [3][6]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's policies [3][6]. - Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. have been downgraded, with the 2025 growth rate revised from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4% [3][6]. - The report highlights that inflation expectations have risen, with core PCE inflation projected to increase from 2.5% to 2.8%, indicating potential upward pressure on prices due to tariffs and other policies [3][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report notes that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a steady pace, but recent data suggests a weakening trend, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a nearly 10% decline [3][6]. - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation risks has intensified, leading to a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for only one rate cut this year [3][6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report discusses the impact of recent tariff policies on inflation, suggesting that while short-term inflation risks may rise, the Federal Reserve views these as temporary shocks [3][6]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a shift in expectations, with an increase in the number of members anticipating no rate cuts this year, reflecting concerns over inflation [3][6]. Future Projections - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement 2-3 rate cuts in the second half of the year, contingent on economic data and inflation trends [3][6]. - It emphasizes that the current high-interest rate environment, coupled with contractionary policies, may increase economic downward pressure, necessitating a reassessment of monetary policy [3][6].