中国平安（601318）：2024年年报业绩点评：利润符合预期，分红政策稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Ping An Insurance (601318) with a target price of 67.26 CNY per share, unchanged from the previous forecast [3][16]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for 2024 increased by 47.8% year-on-year, and the operating profit after tax (OPAT) rose by 9.1%, aligning with expectations. The dividend policy remains stable [4][16]. - The new business value (NBV) grew steadily, driven by both individual and bank channels, while the combined ratio (COR) for property insurance improved, and investment returns significantly increased [4][16]. - The report anticipates that the company's EV (embedded value) will grow by 2.3% year-on-year, although the growth rate may be pressured by adjustments in economic assumptions [16]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts (in million CNY): - 2023A: Revenue 913,789, Net Profit 85,665 - 2024A: Revenue 1,028,925, Net Profit 126,607 - 2025E: Revenue 1,051,215, Net Profit 132,237 - 2026E: Revenue 1,114,283, Net Profit 142,576 - 2027E: Revenue 1,191,983, Net Profit 154,092 - Revenue growth rates: 4% in 2023, 13% in 2024, 2% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 7% in 2027 [6][17]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 4.70 CNY - 2024A: 6.95 CNY - 2025E: 7.26 CNY - 2026E: 7.83 CNY - 2027E: 8.46 CNY [6][17]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 10% - 2024A: 14% - 2025E: 13% - 2026E: 13% - 2027E: 12% [6][17]. Market Data - The stock price has ranged between 37.78 CNY and 61.73 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 984,627 million CNY [7][16]. - The current price is 54.07 CNY, indicating potential upside to the target price [3][16]. Investment Drivers - The report highlights that the NBV for 2024 increased by 28.8% year-on-year, driven by a 26.5% increase from the agent channel and a 62.7% increase from the bank insurance channel [16]. - The improvement in the property insurance COR by 2.4 percentage points to 98.3% is attributed to a significant reduction in underwriting losses from guarantee insurance [16].