1-2月经济数据点评：经济前景不确定性增加，美联储放缓QT速度

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies, but it discusses the economic outlook and potential impacts on investment strategies [8]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% and will slow down the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) starting April 1, reducing the monthly redemption cap on government bonds from $25 billion to$5 billion [1]. - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 have been downgraded, with GDP growth expectations revised to 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% for 2025 to 2027, down from previous estimates of 2.1%, 2.0%, and 1.9% [2]. - The unemployment rate projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3%, while inflation expectations (PCE) have been raised to 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% for the same period [2]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The current economic activity in the U.S. is expanding steadily, with a stable low unemployment rate and a robust labor market, although inflation remains slightly above target [1][3]. - There is an increase in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, prompting the Federal Reserve to closely monitor risks related to its dual mandate of employment and inflation [1]. Consumer Confidence and Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence has declined, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 57.9 in March from 64.7 in February, marking three consecutive months of decline [4]. - Inflation expectations have risen, with short-term expectations increasing from 4.3% in February to 4.9% in March, and long-term expectations rising from 3.5% to 3.9% [4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The ratio of job vacancies to job seekers remains stable, and wage growth is outpacing inflation, indicating a balanced labor market [3]. - The proportion of discouraged borrowers has increased to 8.5%, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence and lending activity [4]. Policy Implications - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is in a position to either lower interest rates or maintain a restrictive stance, depending on clearer signals from the economy [3]. - The potential impact of the new administration's policies on trade and fiscal matters is highlighted as a factor that could influence economic and monetary policy directions [3].