x 行业深度研究 | 证券Ⅱ 变与不变，券商股行情的复盘与展望 东方破晓系列报告二 1、券商股历次行情的共同之处：我们深入分析 2005 年以来证券Ⅲ（中信） 指数 8 个具有代表性的上涨时间区间，试图寻找券商板块股价上涨的普适性 规律，主要有以下结论：1）宏观经济，券商行情与经济周期密切相关，对 于经济预期拐点的反馈比较敏感。2）流动性，券商行情通常处于降息周期 中，伴随货币政策的宽松，流动性充裕下资金受积极的政策预期和情绪影响 流入股市带动成交量上升。3）政策，宏观及行业相关政策对于券商股行情 开启通常具有决定性意义，股权分置改革带来 2005-2007 年史诗级牛市，"四 万亿计划"催生 2008-2009 年牛市，证券行业创新大会带来 2012-2013 年行 情，超预期降息降准带来 2014-2015 年大牛市，股票质押纾困+科创板注册 制带来 2018-2019 年行情，2020/5-2020/7 板块受益于创业板注册制改革进展， 2021/5-2021/9 行情源于公募基金牛市下分部估值的故事，2023/6-2023/8 行情 源自活跃资本市场的预期。4）盈利和估值，由于券商业务与资本市场高度 ...

公司点评 | 坚朗五金 需求下行致业绩承压，海外业务加快拓展 坚朗五金（002791.SZ）2024 年报点评 事件：公司 2024 年实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 66.38/0.90/0.47 亿元， 同比-14.92%/-72.23%/-83.54%。其中 Q4 单季实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母 净利润 17.27/0.57/0.46 亿元，同比-23.33%/-68.22%/69.84%。 需求承压致收入下滑，公建类产品增速亮眼。2024 年建筑行业仍处于深度调整 期，需求存在但整体仍较弱。分品类看，与地产直接关联的产品下降较多，公建 类产品点支承幕墙，因具有一定周期性且下游部分企业资金支付改善，增速较为 亮眼；具体来看，门窗五金系统/家居类产品/其他建筑五金产品/门窗配套件/点 支 承 玻 璃 幕 墙 构 配 件 / 门 控 五 金 系 统 / 不 锈 钢 护 栏 构 配 件 收 入 同 比 -18.50%/-21.99%/-9.84%/-12.08%/+11.35%/-10.54%/-4.21%。 海外布局加速，占比提升有望促进毛利率优化。公司积极开发"一带一路"相 关新兴国家市场，将中 ...

事件：公司公告 2024 年年报，实现营收 90.26 亿元、增长 24.99%；归母净 利润为 17.64 亿元、增长 119.46%；扣非后为 17.00 亿元、增长 96.28%。 黄金产量逐年增长、2024Q4 开启增储工作，财务稳健为持续发展奠定基础。 1）根据公司年报，2024 年，公司实现黄金产量 15.16 吨，同比增长 5.60%， 其中国内矿山贡献 3.91 吨，同比增长 14.6%，增速表现突出；境外矿山贡 献 11.25 吨，继续发挥核心支撑作用。公司实现归母净利润 17.64 亿元，同 比增 119.46%，自由现金流 17.49 亿元，同比增长 279.22%；经营性现金流 净额达 32.68 亿元，同比增长 48.34%。经营性现金流及自由现金流的强劲 增长反映了公司在扩大生产规模的同时，保持了良好的资本支出管理和营运 资金效率，进一步提升了公司的盈利质量和财务稳健性，为未来的持续发展 奠定了更为坚实的基础。2）2020-2024 年，公司黄金产量分别为 4.59 吨、 8.10 吨、13.57 吨、14.35 吨、15.16 吨，实现连年增长，其中 2021-2023 年（20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.24 CNY based on a target P/E ratio of 23X for 2025 [5][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in upstream raw material prices may eliminate the negative impact on the company's anode profitability, with an expected improvement in the industry supply-demand dynamics by 2025. The company's anode products are widely used in downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and 3C electronics, supported by a well-established integrated layout and significant cost advantages. The growth of high-end products like fast-charging and silicon anodes is anticipated to continue providing excess returns [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established in 2004, entered the anode materials sector in 2016 through the acquisition of a graphite company, forming a synergistic business model of "magnetic equipment + anode materials." As of the first half of 2024, over 90% of the company's revenue comes from its anode business [2][13]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a substantial increase in net profit for 2024, estimating a range of 288-325 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 590% to 680%. The expected net profit for 2024 is projected at 307 million CNY, with a significant improvement in operational efficiency and cost reduction measures contributing to this growth [2][33]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the supply expansion in the anode market is slowing down, which may lead to a rebound in prices. The demand for fast-charging products is increasing, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its partnerships with leading battery manufacturers [3][47]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's integrated cost structure is highlighted, with the estimated graphite cost at approximately 6,000 CNY per ton. The report emphasizes the importance of cost control and operational efficiency in enhancing profitability, particularly as the company increases its production capacity and product offerings [3][4][18]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see its net profit grow to 603 million CNY in 2025 and 863 million CNY in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.88 CNY and 1.26 CNY. The anticipated growth rates for net profit are 96.3% and 43.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1][4][18].

ERN WE HISTER 宏观专题报告 美国劳动力市场会快速走弱吗? 证券研究报告 2025 年 03月 27 日 核心结论 . 2025年以来,美国"软指标"包括消费者和企业投资者信心指数出现回落, 但是"硬指标"所代表的劳动力市场虽放缓,也依然保持相对稳健。劳动力 市场作为经济的滞后指标,其走势更能反映基本面真实情况,"就业-薪资- 消费"的传导链条是美国经济的核心。我们通过回顾 2024年美国劳动力市 场情况,结合2025年1-2月劳动力市场边际变化,分析2025年美国劳动力 市场可能出现的特征。 2024年美国劳动力市场概览。2024年美国企业调查(CES)和家庭住户调 分析师 S08005 2070002 13911826169 bianquanshui(@research xbmail.com.cn 杨一凡 S0800574020001 vangvifan@research.xbmail.com.cn 查(CPS)的新增非农之间的剪刀差拉大,主要由于在不同口径下统计样本 和包含项目不同,背后也是由于疫情后跳槽者、多份工作者、以及移民人数 的上行导致。2024年劳动力市场呈现:1)从总量上来看、劳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CITIC Securities (600030.SH) [7] Core Views - CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 63.79 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.70 billion yuan for 2024, representing year-on-year changes of +6.2% and +10.1% respectively [1][7] - The fourth quarter saw revenues and net profits of 17.65 billion yuan and 4.91 billion yuan, with quarter-on-quarter changes of +10.6% and -21.3% respectively, with the decline in net profit attributed to increased management expenses [1][7] - The company’s weighted average ROE increased by 0.28 percentage points to 8.1% [1] - The report highlights the strong performance of international business, with net profit from international operations reaching 530 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 115.5% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, CITIC Securities achieved net income from brokerage, investment banking, and asset management of 10.71 billion yuan, 4.16 billion yuan, and 10.51 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +4.8%, -33.9%, and +6.7% respectively [2] - The average daily trading volume (ADT) in the A-share market for Q4 was 1.6 trillion yuan, which positively impacted brokerage net income [2] - The company’s financial asset investment increased by 20.4% year-on-year, with trading financial assets and other equity investments growing by 10.5% and 853% respectively [3] Future Projections - The report projects net profits for CITIC Securities to be 22.30 billion yuan, 24.20 billion yuan, and 26.03 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.8%, +8.5%, and +7.6% respectively [3] - The projected price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.40, 1.29, and 1.19 respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies, but it discusses the economic outlook and potential impacts on investment strategies [8]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% and will slow down the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) starting April 1, reducing the monthly redemption cap on government bonds from $25 billion to $5 billion [1]. - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 have been downgraded, with GDP growth expectations revised to 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% for 2025 to 2027, down from previous estimates of 2.1%, 2.0%, and 1.9% [2]. - The unemployment rate projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3%, while inflation expectations (PCE) have been raised to 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% for the same period [2]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The current economic activity in the U.S. is expanding steadily, with a stable low unemployment rate and a robust labor market, although inflation remains slightly above target [1][3]. - There is an increase in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, prompting the Federal Reserve to closely monitor risks related to its dual mandate of employment and inflation [1]. Consumer Confidence and Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence has declined, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 57.9 in March from 64.7 in February, marking three consecutive months of decline [4]. - Inflation expectations have risen, with short-term expectations increasing from 4.3% in February to 4.9% in March, and long-term expectations rising from 3.5% to 3.9% [4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The ratio of job vacancies to job seekers remains stable, and wage growth is outpacing inflation, indicating a balanced labor market [3]. - The proportion of discouraged borrowers has increased to 8.5%, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence and lending activity [4]. Policy Implications - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is in a position to either lower interest rates or maintain a restrictive stance, depending on clearer signals from the economy [3]. - The potential impact of the new administration's policies on trade and fiscal matters is highlighted as a factor that could influence economic and monetary policy directions [3].

药明康德（603259.SH）2024 年年报点评 业绩公告：公司 2024 年实现营业收入人民币 392.41 亿元（-2.73%），剔除 特定商业化生产项目同比增长 5.2%，归母净利润 94.50 亿元（-1.63%），扣 非归母净利润 99.88 亿元（+2.47%）。Q4 单季度实现收入 115.39 亿元，归 母净利润 29.17 亿元，扣非归母净利润 33.06 亿元。 业务拆分：其中化学业务实现收入 290.52 亿元（-0.41%），毛利率 46.39%。 测试业务实现收入 56.71 亿元（-4.82%），毛利率 32.73%。生物学业务实现 收入 25.44 亿元（-0.34%），毛利率 37.70%。2024 年终止经营业务收入 13.24 亿元（为 WuXi ATU 业务的美国和英国运营主体及美国医疗器械测试业务）。 化药小分子核心业务稳健增长，TIDES 维持高速增长。化学业务实现收入人 民币 290.5 亿元，剔除特定商业化生产项目同比增长 11.2%。TIDES 业务（寡 核苷酸和多肽）保持高速增长。TIDES 业务收入达到人民币 58.0 亿元，同 比增长 70.1%。截至 ...

ERN WHISTER 宏观点评报告 事件:美国联邦储备委员会当地时间 3月 19日宣布,将联邦基金利率目标 区间维持在 4.25%至 4.5%。但决定从 4 月 1 日开始放缓 QT 速度,国债的 每月赎回上限从 250 亿美元减少到 50 亿美元。 除了放缓 QT 速度之外,3月 FOMC 声明中增加了"经济前景不确定性上行" 的同时删除了"实现其就业和通胀目标的风险大致平衡"。会议纪要显示:当 前美国经济活动持续稳健扩张。失业率稳定在低位,劳动力市场状况保持稳 健,通胀仍处于略高水平。但经济前景的不确定性上升,委员会密切关注其 分析师 SUX005 201700 13911826169 bianquanshui(@research.xbmail.com.cn S08005 23020001 vangvifan@research.xbmail.com.cn 双重使命(就业与通胀)面临的双向风险。委员会在评估对联邦基金利率目 标区间进一步调整的幅度与时机时,将审慎分析数据、不断变化的经济前景 以及风险平衡。 和会议声明相匹配,经济预测下调了 2025年的经济增速、上调了 2025年 的失业率和通胀。2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expected investment return over the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 362.01 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year, while achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50.75 billion yuan, an increase of 15.01% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company's battery shipment volume reached 475 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.79%, with significant contributions from both power and energy storage battery systems [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing global capacity expansion and the electrification of vehicles, with a total production capacity of 676 GWh and an additional 219 GWh under construction [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 26.54%, up 3.43 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 14.83% [1]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 67.07 billion yuan, 82.74 billion yuan, and 97.95 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 32.2%, 23.4%, and 18.4% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 11.52 yuan in 2024 to 22.24 yuan in 2027 [3].