Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Kingdee International (268 HK) with a target price of HK15.14 [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Kingdee's stock has appreciated by 94% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 23%. However, the company's fundamental recovery is lagging behind this valuation increase [6]. - For the second half of 2024, Kingdee's revenue grew by 9% year-on-year to RMB 3.39 billion, which was below market expectations. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased by 20% to RMB 3.43 billion, also falling short of projections [6][10]. - The report notes that Kingdee's cloud service revenue grew by 10% to RMB 2.72 billion, again underperforming against market expectations [6][10]. - The management anticipates a revenue growth acceleration in 2025, projecting a 14% increase compared to the 9% growth in the second half of 2024, supported by a low base and macroeconomic recovery [6][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating and Price Target - The target price has been raised from HK14.94, reflecting a significant increase of 134% [2][12]. - The report adjusts the target price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to 7.0, aligning it with global peers in the ERP sector [12][13]. Financial Performance - Kingdee's revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 7.15 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [9][10]. - The report anticipates that Kingdee will achieve a breakeven point in operating profit and net profit in 2025, despite downward adjustments in earnings forecasts due to underperformance in 2H24 [6][10]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to RMB 0.05 and RMB 0.11, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 61% and 36% from previous estimates [2][10]. - The ARR for 2025 is expected to grow by 22%, while the growth rate is projected to slow to 20% in 2026 [7][10]. Market Comparisons - Kingdee's market capitalization stands at approximately US89 million [1][12]. - The report compares Kingdee's performance with global peers, noting that its current valuation is in line with similar companies that have larger customer bases and stronger profitability [8][12].
金蝶国际（00268）：2H24业绩回顾：上行潜力有限，进一步估值重塑的空间较小，重申“持有”评级