Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk aversion and interest rate cut expectations resonated, causing gold prices to reach new highs last week. On March 21, the Shanghai Gold main futures price rose 1.73% to 706.96 yuan/gram, the COMEX gold main futures price rose 1.16% to 3028.20 US dollars/ounce, the gold T+D spot price rose 1.92% to 706.08 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 1.31% to 3022.79 US dollars/ounce. The weakening of the US dollar index and US stocks, the dovish signal from the Fed's March FOMC meeting, and geopolitical uncertainties all supported the gold price. However, the rebound of the US dollar on Friday and some long - position profit - taking led to a decline in the gold price. Overall, the gold price rose significantly last week [1]. - This week (the week of March 24), the gold price may face short - term correction pressure. The better - than - expected US existing home sales data, the rebound of the US dollar index, the possible rebound of the US stocks, and the easing of concerns about tariff risks may restrict the inflow of funds into the gold market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On March 21, the Shanghai Gold main futures price closed at 706.96 yuan/gram, up 12.00 yuan/gram from March 14; the COMEX gold main futures price closed at 3028.20 US dollars/ounce, up 34.60 US dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price closed at 706.08 yuan/gram, up 13.28 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 3022.79 US dollars/ounce, up 39.00 US dollars/ounce [3]. - The trading data shows that the cumulative increase of the Shanghai Gold main futures was 1.83%, with a trading volume of 83.38 million and an open interest of 20.73 million; the COMEX gold main futures had a cumulative increase of 0.90%, a trading volume of 77.73 million, and an open interest of 24.28 million. The gold T+D spot had a cumulative increase of 1.85%, a trading volume of 21.35 million, and an open interest of 18.53 million; the London gold spot had a cumulative increase of 1.31% [4]. 1.2 Gold Basis - On March 21, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 11.80 US dollars/ounce, slightly up 0.15 US dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis turned positive to 0.94 yuan/gram, up 1.44 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [6]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - On March 21, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.68 yuan/gram, continuing to rise from - 0.20 yuan/gram of the previous Friday. The rebound of the US dollar on Friday suppressed the foreign - market gold price, resulting in a smaller increase in the foreign - market price than the domestic - market price. The gold - oil ratio remained the same as the previous week, the gold - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [9]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly last week. As of March 21, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 930.51 tons, an increase of 24.10 tons from the previous Friday. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D increased significantly, with a total trading volume of 213,494 kilograms, up 14.43% from the previous week. - In terms of futures positions, as of March 18, the long - position holdings of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased significantly, while the short - position holdings remained basically the same, leading to a continuous increase in the net long - position. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to increase, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 600 kilograms to 15,675 kilograms [15]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased slightly week - on - week; the number of JOLTS job openings in January continued to decline; the CPI and PPI year - on - year in January dropped significantly; the ISM services PMI in February rebounded while the manufacturing PMI declined; the unemployment rate in February rebounded; the number of new non - farm payrolls in February increased slightly; the Michigan consumer confidence index in March continued to decline significantly; the durable goods orders in January increased significantly month - on - month; the core PCE year - on - year in January declined [21][23][26][27]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - On March 20, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The Fed will slow down the balance - sheet reduction from April, reducing the monthly redemption cap of US Treasury bonds from 25 billion US dollars to 5 billion US dollars. The updated dot - plot shows that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2025, but the number of people who expect no rate cut this year increased from one to four, and the number of people who expect two rate cuts decreased by one to nine. The Fed also lowered the US economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, raised the unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, and raised the core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8% [31]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The US dollar index first declined and then rose last week, with a slight overall increase. The Fed's statement about the increased uncertainty of the US economic outlook led to a decline in the US dollar index at the beginning of the week. However, concerns about tariff issues and the correction of the German and Hong Kong stock markets pushed up the US dollar index in the second half of the week. As of March 21, the US dollar index rebounded 0.40% to 104.15 compared with the previous Friday [33]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The yield of the 10 - year US TIPS declined significantly last week. The Fed's decision to keep the policy rate unchanged and the signal of increased economic uncertainty boosted market expectations of interest rate cuts, and concerns about the US economic downturn led to a significant decline in the 10 - year US TIPS yield. As of March 21, the yield of the 10 - year US TIPS declined 9bp to 1.92% [36]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The risk in the Middle East increased. On March 18, the Israeli military launched a large - scale air strike on Gaza, and on March 22, Israel also carried out an air strike on southern Lebanon, intensifying the geopolitical risk in the Middle East. In the Russia - Ukraine situation, the US and Russia will hold talks on Monday, and the Trump administration hopes to reach a cease - fire agreement before April 20 [39].
避险情绪和降息预期共振，金价不断创新高黄金周报（2025.3.17-2025.3.23）-2025-03-25
东方金诚·2025-03-25 07:24