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新东方-S(09901):留学业务持续调整,素养教培支撑增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in the study abroad business while highlighting the growth supported by the quality education and training sector [1][7]. - The company is expected to generate revenue of 1.225billioninQ3FY25,reflectingayearonyeargrowthof1.51.225 billion in Q3 FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, with the education business (including cultural tourism) contributing 1.111 billion, a 21% increase [4]. - The report anticipates a decline in net profit attributable to the parent company, projected at 91million,down13.291 million, down 13.2% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 7.6%, narrowing by 1.1 percentage points [4]. Summary by Sections Study Abroad Business - The growth rate of the study abroad business has slowed, with revenue from overseas exam training and consulting reaching 310 million, a 16.6% increase, but down 30.1 percentage points from the previous year [5]. - The high-end one-on-one training segment faces challenges due to its premium pricing, and the demand for studying abroad is returning to normal after a surge due to the pandemic [5]. New Business Growth - New business segments, including K9 quality education and learning machine services, are expected to see a 37% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching 332million[6].Thecompanyplanstoexpanditsserviceofferingstomeetdifferentiateddemandsinprimaryandsecondaryeducation,whichisexpectedtodriverapidgrowthinnewbusiness[6].FinancialProjectionsRevenueforecastsforFY25FY27havebeenreviseddownto332 million [6]. - The company plans to expand its service offerings to meet differentiated demands in primary and secondary education, which is expected to drive rapid growth in new business [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY25-FY27 have been revised down to 4.96 billion, 6.02billion,and6.02 billion, and 7.34 billion, respectively, due to the slowdown in the high-margin study abroad business [7]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY25-FY27 have also been adjusted to 454million,454 million, 534 million, and 636million,respectively[7].TheDCFtargetpricehasbeenloweredto636 million, respectively [7]. - The DCF target price has been lowered to 74.8, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17.3 for FY25 and a PEG ratio of 0.93 [7]. Financial Data - The company’s revenue for FY25 is projected at 4.959billion,withayearonyeargrowthrateof14.964.959 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.96% [9]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25 is expected to be 454 million, reflecting a growth rate of 19.21% [11]. - The company’s cash and bank deposits are projected to increase to $2.021 billion by FY25 [12].