Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][34] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from its full industry chain advantages, leading to a robust profit growth of 95% in 2024, with revenue reaching 156.2 billion yuan, a 17% increase year-on-year [1][6] - The increase in aluminum prices and a decrease in energy costs are driving significant profit growth in the electrolytic aluminum and alumina businesses [2][7] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 161 Hong Kong cents per share for 2024, which represents 63% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 156.2 billion yuan, a 17% increase from 2023, and a net profit of 22.37 billion yuan, reflecting a 95% growth [1][6] - The operating cash flow for the year was 14.26 billion yuan, up 85% year-on-year [1][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.36 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.1 [4][34] Business Segment Analysis - The average selling price of aluminum alloy products in 2024 is expected to be 17,550 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan per ton compared to 2023 [2][7] - The cost of coal procurement is projected to decrease by 110 yuan per ton, resulting in a reduction of 480 yuan per ton of aluminum [2][7] - The selling price of alumina is expected to rise to 3,420 yuan per ton, an increase of 860 yuan per ton from 2023, while the cost is expected to decrease by 60 yuan per ton [2][7] Future Projections - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company is projected to maintain stable revenue at 137.5 billion yuan annually, with net profits of 22.22 billion, 22.92 billion, and 23.51 billion yuan respectively [3][34] - The diluted EPS for these years is expected to be 2.35, 2.42, and 2.48 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 6.1, 5.9, and 5.8 [3][34] - The company is expected to achieve a more stable profit capability due to reduced volatility in energy costs, alongside benefiting from the current high aluminum market cycle [3][34]
中国宏桥（01378）：受益于全产业链优势，盈利能力稳健