【解剖大盘】 美国1月非农数据超预期，导致美联储3月降息概率从20%骤降至8%，如果晚间CPI数据再助力一下，对 股市自然就很不利。 AI恐慌引发纳指大跌超2%，直接引发各种连锁反应，比如说黄金，股市大跌，投资者抛售黄金补保证 金填补流动性，这种情况比较常见，非黄金基本面恶化。 反复提到的大模型概念相当凶悍，智谱(02513)专为AI编码打造的订阅制付费套餐GLM Coding Plan宣布 涨价。官方称GLM Coding Plan市场需求持续强劲增长，用户规模与调用量快速提升。敢于提价是背后 的实力的：在三个大Agent 评测基准上，GLM-5均为开源第一；GLM-5 Coding 能力逼近 Claude Opus 4.5；模型参数的翻倍直接拉动推理成本提高。大模型发展到现在，就是剩者为王，最终被消费者使用 的就容易变现。提价就是最好的催化，今天智谱(02513)再度大涨超20%。MiniMax+(00100)涨超15%+， 双双创历史新高。预计在春节后期间内地资金缺失的情况下，外资会重点炒作拉高股价。 2月12日，工信部公开征求《智能网联汽车 自动驾驶系统安全要求》等强制性国家标准的意见。该标准 将代替 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 港股收盘，恒指收跌1.72%，科指收跌0.9%；腾讯音乐(01698.HK)跌超9%，紫金矿业(02899.HK)跌超 7%，中国宏桥(01378.HK)、中国石油股份(00857.HK)均跌超5%。 ...

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings (00700), Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) ranked as the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 1.792 billion, 0.571 billion, and 0.412 billion respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow of southbound funds were Yingfu Fund (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Kuaishou-W (01024), with net outflows of -4.553 billion, -1.380 billion, and -0.576 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088), Southern East Selection (03441), and Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) led the market with ratios of 90.53%, 74.02%, and 68.27% respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow ratio were Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432), Fuyao Glass (06865), and Baize Medical (02609) with ratios of -100.00%, -59.27%, and -53.09% respectively [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 1.792 billion, representing a 12.21% increase, closing at 560.000 (+2.28%) [2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) saw a net inflow of 0.571 billion, with a 6.77% increase, closing at 5.300 (+1.34%) [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 0.412 billion, with a 9.45% increase, closing at 35.200 (+0.06%) [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Yingfu Fund (02800) experienced the highest net outflow of -4.553 billion, with a -22.13% decrease, closing at 27.220 (+1.72%) [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of -1.380 billion, representing an -11.37% decrease, closing at 93.940 (+1.56%) [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) faced a net outflow of -0.576 billion, with a -10.25% decrease, closing at 69.300 (-2.74%) [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088) led with a net inflow ratio of 90.53%, with a net inflow of 47.6883 million, closing at 6.875 (+1.33%) [3] - Southern East Selection (03441) followed with a net inflow ratio of 74.02%, with a net inflow of 18.0421 million, closing at 11.600 (+1.13%) [3] - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) had a net inflow ratio of 68.27%, with a net inflow of 5.6553 million, closing at 13.340 (-0.07%) [3]

大型蓝筹股涨跌不一，汇丰控股收报139.794港元，较香港收市跌0.0%；腾讯控股收报543.262港元，较香港收市跌0.86%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 港股代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | ADRIETY | ADR换算价(HKD) | 较 较港股升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 腾讯控股 | @ 00700 | 548.000 | -3.000 | -0.54% | TCEHY | 543.262 | -4.738 | | 2 | 阿里巴巴-W | 09988 | 160.100 | -0.400 | -0.25% | BABA | 160.555 | +0.455 | | 3 | 汇丰控股 | 00005 | 139.800 | -0.500 | -0.36% | HSBC | 139.794 | -0.006 | | 4 | 建设银行 | 00939 | 8.150 | +0.030 | 0.37% | CICHY | 8.153 | +0.003 | | 5 | 小米集团-W | 018 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691) has experienced significant net redemptions recently, indicating potential investor concerns or shifts in market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of February 10, the latest scale of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691) is 8.78 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 27.79 million yuan on that day, representing 0.32% of the previous day's scale [1]. - Over the past five days, the fund has seen net redemptions totaling 70.53 million yuan, ranking 11th out of 215 in cross-border ETF net outflows [1]. - Year-to-date, the fund's shares have decreased by 4.58%, while its scale has increased by 4.09% compared to the end of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The cumulative trading amount for the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691) over the last 20 trading days is 7.123 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 356 million yuan [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, the fund has recorded a cumulative trading amount of 9.096 billion yuan over 27 trading days, averaging 337 million yuan per day [2]. Group 3: Fund Holdings - The top holdings of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691) include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (14.55%), China Shenhua Energy Company (9.65%), and China Pacific Insurance (8.90%), among others [3]. - The fund's significant holdings reflect a diversified investment strategy focused on high-dividend stocks within the Hong Kong market [3].

智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报表示，鉴于全球铝供应短缺格局将在2026至2027年持续，叠加铝 价上行与铝土矿价格下行的双重利好，上调中国宏桥(01378)盈利预测，并将其目标价从39港元升至45 港元，维持"买入"评级。 估值方面，招银国际基于2026年远期市盈率11倍，将中国宏桥目标价上调至45港元。该行强调，未来股 价上涨将更多依赖盈利增长而非估值扩张，因为过去十年公司远期市盈率的上限区间为10至11倍。 招银国际指出，当前中国原铝产能利用率已接近政策上限的99%，同时海外新增产能释放有限，这将支 撑全球铝市维持短缺状态，预计2026年铝均价同比上涨15%。尽管2027年海外产能投产节奏或加快，但 该行预计短缺仍将持续，铝价将继续保持高位运行。基于此，招银国际将2026年、2027年铝均价预测分 别上调12%、7%，同时由于供应充足，该行将铝土矿价格预测下调16%、18%，并相应地将中国宏桥 2026年、2027年核心净利润预测分别上调27%、12%。 从盈利表现来看，中国宏桥2025年核心净利润预计达262.62亿元，同比增长7%;2026年净利润增速将加 快至34%，主要驱动力来自铝价上涨。招 ...

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 金 材 & 海 外 】 中 国 宏 桥 （01378.HK） 铝价上涨带来利润弹性 972918116公共联系人2026-02-10 21:48:52 1 / 10 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% 38% 86% 134% 182% 230% 02/25 04/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 中国宏桥 恒生指数 | [分析师： Table_Author]陈凯丽 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260526010001 | | 021-38003564 | | chenkaili@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 陈琪玮 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524040003 | | SFC CE No. BTE650 | | 021-38003631 | | chenqiwei@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，陈凯丽并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and characteristics of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (工银, 159691), which has shown a slight increase in scale despite a decrease in shares this year [1][2]. - As of February 9, 2023, the fund's latest share count is 6.251 billion, with a total scale of 8.709 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.27% decrease in shares and a 3.24% increase in scale since the end of 2022 [1]. - The fund has a management fee rate of 0.45% per year and a custody fee rate of 0.07% per year, with its performance benchmark being the adjusted return of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Select Index [1]. Group 2 - The current fund managers are Liu Weilin, He Shun, Zhao Xu, and Jiao Wenlong, with Liu Weilin managing the fund since its inception and achieving a return of 40.69% [2]. - The top holdings of the fund include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (14.55%), China Shenhua Energy (9.65%), and China Pacific Insurance (8.90%), among others, with significant market values for each [3]. - The fund's recent trading activity shows a cumulative transaction amount of 9.096 billion yuan over 27 trading days this year, with an average daily transaction amount of 3.37 million yuan [1].

中国宏桥港股市值3442.65亿港元，在工业金属行业中排名第1。主要指标见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 环球富盛发布研报称，预测中国宏桥(01378.HK)2025-2027年归母净利润分别为186.75、252.99、271.76 亿元。结合可比公司估值考虑到公司为电解铝行业龙头给予一定估值溢价，给予公司2026年16倍PE， 按照港元兑人民币0.89汇率计算，对应目标价为45.58港币，给予"买入"评级。 投行对该股的评级以买入为主，近90天内共有3家投行给出买入评级，近90天的目标均价为40.02港元。 环球富盛理财有限公司最新一份研报给予中国宏桥买入评级，目标价45.58港元。 机构评级详情见下表： ...

环球富盛发布研报称，预测中国宏桥(01378)2025-2027年归母净利润分别为186.75、252.99、271.76亿 元。结合可比公司估值考虑到公司为电解铝行业龙头给予一定估值溢价，给予公司2026年16倍PE，按 照港元兑人民币0.89汇率计算，对应目标价为45.58港币，给予"买入"评级。 环球富盛主要观点如下： 2025年归母净利润预计为170.0-200.0亿元 美元体系变局下，电解铝站上新周期起 2026年开年电解铝市场迎来历史性行情，1月上旬创下历史新高后，下旬在美元、贵金属、地缘等扰动 下再度冲高后深度回撤。回顾本轮行情，美元重挫是核心驱动，特朗普第二任期后的关税博弈、对美联 储施压、地缘上的破坏规则等，加速了世界范围内去美元化进程，贵金属站在前沿，主导了基本金属的 波动。回顾2025年的美元与铝价，可以发现自特朗普上台后，便是本轮美元走弱的开始，去美元化与多 元化的进程正在加速。 在去美元体系与新货币体系的进程之中，无论是地缘、能源、化工、矿产金属、农产品等的博弈，都是 围绕着这个进程进行，在这样的进程下以贵金属及铜铝为代表的具有良好基本面结构与价值承载体的商 品易涨难跌。后市来看，铝 ...